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Comment by diminoten | Hacker News Reader

Do you deny the theoretical possibility that somewhere on this planet there are people actively attempting to hurt people in the US?

Do you further, or alternatively deny that alerting those people to the fact that the FBI knows about them would harm the FBI's ability to stop them from harming people in the US?

This should be an argument of degrees and to what extent, not an argument about the existence of a threat in the first place, or that the government should be absolutely open about everything. Such a position is quite extremist and completely impractical.

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"Do you deny the theoretical possibility that somewhere on this planet there are people actively attempting to hurt people in the US?"

No, but (a) that is irrelevant to the issue of NSLs, which are a purely domestic matter, (b) we are spending real money on fighting these hypothetical enemies, and (c) we have yet to be shown evidence that this money is being used effectively.

"Do you further, or alternatively deny that alerting those people to the fact that the FBI knows about them would harm the FBI's ability to stop them from harming people in the US?"

The FBI is not supposed to be conducting foreign operations. They jurisdiction ends with the borders of this nation and its embassies.

"This should be an argument of degrees and to what extent, not an argument about the existence of a threat in the first place,"

You are basically admitting that when it comes to the war on terror, nothing is temporary. We will always be fighting the war on terror. What rights we give up in the name of fighting terrorists will be permanently lost.

This is a matter of civil liberties. The secret list of suspected terrorists has come to include journalists, political dissidents, anti-war protesters, and so forth. Being on the list means losing your privacy rights, being harassed while you travel even within US borders, and potentially being assassinated by the government.

We need to able to judge this program and decide if it is something we want in our society. Secrecy is incompatible with that.

Who said anything about foreign operations or foreign terrorists? Domestic terrorists, the ones actually here, are very much under the purview of the FBI.

I asked in my previous comment, "Do you further, or alternatively deny that alerting those people to the fact that the FBI knows about them would harm the FBI's ability to stop them from harming people in the US?" Can you answer this?

I have another question: do you believe your/the public's judgement is going to be the best method by which to determine the efficacy of a counter-terrorism strategy, even assuming the program can be communicated in such a way so as to not compromise it's ability to be effective?

"Who said anything about foreign operations or foreign terrorists?"

Was I supposed to assume that "somewhere in the world" meant something different?

"I asked in my previous comment, "Do you further, or alternatively deny that alerting those people to the fact that the FBI knows about them would harm the FBI's ability to stop them from harming people in the US?" Can you answer this?"

Sure: yes. Yes, the FBI will be impeded when they are held accountable for their actions and when their actions are not secret. This is no different from warrant requirements, Miranda rights, the second amendment, the right to an attorney, etc. A democratic society where civil rights are valued gives up some law enforcement power in order to preserve its democracy and civil rights.

"I have another question: do you believe your/the public's judgement is going to be the best method by which to determine the efficacy of a counter-terrorism strategy, even assuming the program can be communicated in such a way so as to not compromise it's ability to be effective?"

When you are asking to use my tax dollars to fight terrorism, you had better be able to convince me that (a) there are terrorists to fight and (b) that you are effective at doing so. Otherwise I want tax money spent building better schools, paying for universal healthcare, paying for scientific research, paying for competent public defenders, etc. Sorry, but you cannot scare me with hypothetical terrorists.

Since you are a fan of asking pedantic questions, I have one for you: do you believe that the war on terror will ever end, or do you believe that it will always be necessary to violate basic civil rights in the name of fighting terrorists?

> Yes, the FBI will be impeded when they are held accountable for their actions and when their actions are not secret.

That's not what I asked. Can you answer the question I asked?

> Otherwise I want tax money spent building better schools, paying for universal healthcare, paying for scientific research, paying for competent public defenders, etc. Sorry, but you cannot scare me with hypothetical terrorists.

The US is a representative democracy, so this is exactly what you are putting money towards, as is the intent when conceived. We don't live in a direct democracy because of precisely the answer to the question I had asked - the layman is incapable of safely guiding a government due to the layman's general ignorance. Representatives are selected among the layman population and then these representatives are educated and given the ability to make decisions on behalf of those who elected him/her. Your tax money is not yours to decide what to spend it on directly. You indirectly decide by electing someone. Oftentimes this upsets people mostly because it puts in perspective exactly how little control over their government any one individual has, but that's how it's designed.

No one gets to be king, not even you.

And to answer your question: no. There will always be people who want to hurt the US and the people who live in it. Obviously it's a constant struggle between those who care more about keeping us safe and those who care more about maintaining freedom for the citizens of the US, but that's a good thing. The struggle will never end, neither side will ever stop fighting, and the US will (hopefully) be better for it. Your extremist view is unhelpful and frankly not relevant. You remove yourself from the conversation by taking such an outside stance.

So you support the idea of a representative democracy, but you do not think people should be allowed to review what the government is doing. That makes it pretty hard for people to choose who to vote for. If a candidate says they will increase funding for counterterrorism operations, and their opponent says they will decrease that funding, how do you think people will make a decision? How do you think people can vote against an ineffective counterterrorism program if they have no way of knowing that the program is effective?

No, we do not just select people who then learn how the government works. We select people who will carry out our will. If you want more funding for scientific research, you vote for someone who works to expand that funding. We need to know what the government is doing in order to have an effective vote. Your idea of representative democracy is a sham -- the government acting in secret is not compatible with any form of democracy. There are limited exceptions during times of war, but we are not at war (not formally), domestic surveillance is not in this category, and even military secrets are supposed to be declassified after some period of time (so that we can review past decisions).

Of course, you leave no room for ever declassifying details of the counterterrorism program in your argument. You openly admit that the "war on terror" will never end.

When even the criteria for targeting people is a secret, there is no balance being struck. All your talk about representative democracy and striking a balance is meaningless in the context of such secrecy. This is not an "extremist" position, it is just liberalism -- the same political philosophy on which America was based.

There's a huge difference between "don't disclose information about some ongoing investigations" and "information about these investigations will be classified forever." Many people see the validity of the former. Attacking the latter gets you nowhere.

Like I said, this is an argument of degrees and extent, not yes or no. It's not "disclose everything right now" or "disclose nothing ever". Please don't pretend like those are our only two options.

It is an extremist position (and one that will get you absolutely nowhere, like it or not) to demand the FBI disclose information about ongoing investigations.

It is an extremist position (and one that will get you absolutely nowhere, like it or not) to demand the FBI disclose information about ongoing investigations.

I don't think that's the position the parent is taking. As it stands now, the FBI does not disclose information about investigations, even long after they are completed.

>>Do you deny the theoretical possibility that somewhere on this planet there are people actively attempting to hurt people in the US?

Personally, I'm more worried about the Yellowstone Caldera. Its eruption is long overdue, and when it does it will damage the entire continent and kill millions.

Why isn't the government doing anything about that?

If I were in the U.S., I'd be more worried about the San Andreas fault and the "big one" due on San Francisco any time soon:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault#The_Universit...

"The 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) has estimated that the probability of an M ≥ 6.7 earthquake within the next 30 years on the northern and southern segments of the San Andreas fault as 21% and 59%, respectively."

A M 7 earhquake in California is bearly newsworthy and far from a significant threat. A low to mid 8 would cause significant property dammamge but few deaths. Even a 9 would only cause local problems. The Yellowstone Calder on the other hand would easily kill 50+% of everyone in the US with a low end eruption. Or put another way it's a significant threat to people livening in India.

PS: A great way of comparing threats is to multiply risk times death totals over a decade. On that scale terrorists and eathquakes are a joke.

In 1989 a 7.1 earthquake cause over $5bn of damage (excluding damage to roads, bridges, and State buildings.)

(http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00001498.htm)

Wikipedia doesn't show many > 7 earthquakes. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquakes_in_California#List...) (but maybe they have a weird inclusion criteria?)

Death's != property damage. Even the 10th most expensive hurricane to hit the US did 10billion in property damage with Katrina hitting 108 billion.

Consider the 9.0 that hit japan in 2011. Despite 129,225 buildings totally collapsed, with a further 254,204 buildings 'half collapsed', and another 691,766 buildings partially damaged it killed under 20,000 people.

That said, we have invested a lot to drive the death totals down in large part because earthquakes and hurricanes are fairly common. In comparison we are spending far to much on terrorism and far to little on the rare but civilization ending mega disasters.

> The Yellowstone Calder on the other hand would easily kill 50+% of everyone in the US with a low end eruption.

This stat is crazy. A low-end eruption (by far the most typical kind) at Yellowstone would kill few people in the U.S. The eruptions aren't that big and the Yellowstone downwind area is one of the least populated areas of the country.

Umm yea sorry, I meant high end eruption. I have no idea why I just said low.

Please cite your source.

Personally I'm more concerned by Mount Rainier, continental America's only "decade volcano".

"The Decade Volcanoes are 16 volcanoes identified by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) as being worthy of particular study in light of their history of large, destructive eruptions and proximity to populated areas."

"More recently (since 2001) funding from the federal government for lahar protection in the area has dried up, leading local authorities in at-risk cities like Orting to fear a disaster similar to the Armero tragedy.[38][39]"

The U.S. government dedicates many millions of dollars per year to monitoring Yellowstone, Rainier, the San Andreas Fault, and many other potential geologic threats.

Edit to add:

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo/index.html

What does this monitoring achieve, though, exactly? If the parent is correct in that a high end eruption at Yellowstone would kill >50% of the US's population, saying "hey guys, it's gonna erupt soon" doesn't do all that much for us.

Now, if our monitoring of earthquakes was advanced enough that we could say, "hey, San Andreas is gonna go nuts approximately 3 days from now in this general area", we could meaningfully evacuate people and save lives. But we don't have that kind of prediction accuracy.

This site is filled with knuckleheads who actually think that the fall of the US would be a good thing, but they mostly live with their parents and have certainly never run a business never mind any government. Every man is a king now that the internet is here so clowns can spout off bullshit. We are at war with Muslim extremists, pretending we aren't is not helpful.

Unless you'd care to show otherwise, you like data to support your assertions re:HN's demographics.

We--by which I assume you mean the United States--are at war with whatever seems to be most profitable to the powers-that-be at the time, whether that is drugs, Muslims, or our own citizens. There is a very valid concern that such a policy of scaremongering and sly abuse of power could result in Bad Things (tm) if the beast decides that a war on one of us would be a worthwhile expenditure of time.

To pretend otherwise is foolish.

There are people out there that wish us harm, as there always have been. Part of the burden of doing great things is the acceptance of the fact that you'll be targeted by those less capable--and part of the requirement is that you bull ahead and don't let it bother you.

> the United States--are at war with whatever seems to be most profitable to the powers-that-be at the time

This is a good example of a knucklehead comment. There is no profit in fighting cave dwelling extremists who want to make sure girls don't go to school. Instead of wishing for the demise of the US you should be saying thank Christ the Americans are in charge. HN can be a bag full of stupid on non-technical issues. I am going to start actively campaigning for the US to stop paying for the EU's defense.

lol thank Christ? Who's letting the creationists in to a scientific news site? Go back to faux news.

Yes, because belief in Christ is clearly an indication of mindless conservatism or creationism.

"Thank Christ, America is in charge" - a quote like that clearly is...

Agnostic, sorry.

This is first class trolling.

Bless you for your generosity, but too much credit. Its more like some one stopped getting enough attention on usenet.

More like third. A proper first class would not be downvoted.

"There is no profit in fighting cave dwelling extremists who want to make sure girls don't go to school"

Unless you are making bullets, guns, body armor, etc. Never underestimate the US government's ability to do seemingly pointless things just to prop up certain businesses. We see that very same pattern of behavior elsewhere in the government; what makes you think the military is exempt?

Over 3000 dead is more than enough motivation, no petty political payoffs are needed to support going after suicidal fascists. Occam's razor.

Thus explaining the lack of military response in the "friendly" countries where those terrorists had been hiding, training, and collecting their money, and the continued military effort elsewhere that is directed at people who were not involved with the attack.

You are confused why we don't respond militarily to friendly countries? Ok.

If you want to stay in office, you do things which gain you political capital--you protect your citizens from threats real or fabricated, you promote the economy through sound policymaking or cronyism, and so on and so forth. There is nothing inherently good or bad about my statement; one simply does not do anything in policymaking without a profit motive, be it for themselves or their constituents.

> This site is filled with knuckleheads

You did not have to go and prove the point so extensively.

I qualified that. Judging by your past comments I don't think you are foolish enough to believe that the fall of the US would be a good thing.

Even if the terrorists managed to deliver one 9/11 per month it would take centuries to bring US to their knees.

(#killed/month)/population = long time. Programmers.

Well no - the metric you have given is people/seconds/people which is people/(seconds*people) which gives 1/s which is frequency and not time.

But anyway I have found that data based decisions and policies tend to produce better outcomes than emotional based ones.

I do find my theory sound - that currently in the world there is no terrorist organization (or even state actor outside of Russia/China) that is capable to deliver enough pain to convert the US to failed state.

The Russians were hammered terribly in WWI and WWII and survived - 20-40 million lives lost. Germany was razed and survived. Poland was decimated and survived. Japan got direct nuclear hits and survived as a state. Israel is under constant real treat for a tiny country and is doing fine.

9/11 was a black swan - a lot of systems already in place failed. The subsequent plots were all incompetent and much smaller in scale (which we are thankful for).

So the statehood of the US is in no danger. And there is tiny danger for the civil populace.

There may be a lot of factors that could turn the US into the Mad Max world - economic collapse, ecologic one, meteorites, IP laws gone berserk.

But the idea that terrorist could cause the fall of the US don't hold to basic napkin math.

True, that should be rate times population.

We are at war with terror (and have been, and always will be), just as we are and have always been at war with Eastasia, but that is completely irrelevant to the question of whether massive domestic surveillance with poor oversight and even poorer accountability is a good idea.

Even if your goal is solely to prevent terrorist attacks and you don't give a damn about domestic collateral, it is still not so obvious. The question is whether, with all the data in the world, there are signals in that data that are exclusively correlated with terrorists and terrorist activities. And, secondarily, whether data mining and ML techniques have found, or can in the near future find, those signals. If not, then, in Schneier's words:

"Piling more data onto the mix makes it harder, not easier. The best way to think of it is a needle-in-a-haystack problem; the last thing you want to do is increase the amount of hay you have to search through." [1]

[1] http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/02/opinion/schneier-boston-bombin...

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