Connections and credentials matter in getting a job. If I had to pick between the two, I would say connections would tip credentials in opening the door and credentials could keep it open.
Getting a job in a startup especially in a smaller market, raw skills get noticed. When someone I know and trust, refers me to a rock star developer, I don’t even look at his CV and don’t really care who he knows. I simply throw the sink at him. His work shows his worth fairly fast. This is true even when the developer has no educational credentials.