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Comment by CrunchyJams | Hacker News Reader

It probably won't go on forever, but at this point there's three years of the trend and only a small fraction of the globe has even heard of bitcoin. Would be surprised if network hashrate didn't grow like it has been for the foreseeable future.

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But they're building on established technology. This is like looking at a third world country just as they begin modernizing... holy cow, they've recapitulated the development of the developed world in just 20 years! They're on fire! They're going to take over the entire world! Except that they're not, because they've been buying their advances from the developed world. (This is not a criticism; tech transfer like this is an awesome, wonderful thing. It's just that one of its tiny side effects is that people can be fooled by the curves.)

Similarly, BitCoin isn't going to be able to continue advancing at this rate when the problem of accelerating BitCoin computation reaches the point where it is reducible to the problem of accelerating transistors in general.

But there's no need for it to continue forever here, since there's a finite target. The question is if current growth can be maintained until there are no more Bitcoins to be mined, not if the curve is sustainable.

I'm at a loss as to what you think you're disagreeing with me about. I don't see how observing that something won't go on forever is somehow a claim that it should.

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