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Be honest: chances are the startup will fail. (And probably for reasons you have little control over, so don't think you can just avoid the mistakes.)

So at the end of 5 years, what have you got? With the Ph.D you've got something recognizable and real academic cred. With the startup it'd be a bit of a mixed bag. If you knew the startup would fail, would you still choose it over the Ph.D?

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PhD programs in CS have a 30% completion rate. (No citation, but true of the program I finished and all others I know)

It's not that safe.

Yes, but how much of that is due to factors outside of the candidate's control?

There seems to be an attack on academic credentials of late, MBAs, PhD etc, even to the point that people are being told to drop out of school.

Yes there is a possibility to make it rich without all of the above, but there is an extremely high chance of failing. A lot of people who are making such claims about education are making them from a dishonest position.

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