The situation in Syria is dangerous. A failed state in that location ... Arab Peninsula in the 2013 is the Balkans in 1913 ...
The situation in Syria is dangerous. A failed state in that location ... Arab Peninsula in the 2013 is the Balkans in 1913 ...
In such a situation, if you've chosen to use an electronic cryptocurrency dependent on things like robust network and electrical infrastructure to function as your primary value store, you're going to have a bad time.
This doesn't even contemplate the additional issue for bitcoin and its derivatives: the blockchain depends on a consistent, global view of network transactions, and apocalyptic-type network segmentation will cause severe forking in the blockchain, further diminishing the utility and therefore the value of the [already worthless] cryptocoins.
Apparently you are unaware of the tools to build offline transactions. Or of the ability to store bitcoins in your head (brain wallet).
Want to send bitcoins to someone without Internet? Just communicate to him/her the brain wallet passphrase (http://brainwallet.org). Or sign an offline transaction on your computer, and send him the raw TX (~300 bytes) printed on paper.
That's the beauty of Bitcoin! The sender still has options to transmit bitcoins despite being offline. Sure these mechanisms are clunky; communicating a brain wallet passphrase gives access to the whole amount associated to the private key, but I imagine in such dire situations (civil war, no internet) you are more concerned with abilities to for example send money to your son in another country, and you would trust him with the brain wallet. Also, nothing prevents you from splitting different amounts of bitcoins in different brain wallets (eg. 3 wallets containing 10, 50, and 250 BTC).
Also, a country under civil war typically destroys the value of their government currency via huge inflation. This is actually a perfect example to demonstrate why Bitcoin is superior to inflated fiat money!
Additionally there could be satellite hotspots that could act as exchanges when landline or wireless networks are down. Bitcoin is probably not perfect, but could be useful for money transfer even in areas where the net isn't robust.
As to your other questions, it make no sense. In what situation would person A, offline in a state of civil war, absolutely need to send money to person B, and then would need to steal the coins back??
I don't think there's been any real demonstration of the use of bitcoins for non-connected transactions--theory does not a practical application make.
Better off trading bottle caps or ring tabs.
A TX record is signed, which proves that only I wrote it. It does not immediately have to become part of the "consensus ledger" i.e. blockchain. All I have to do is not spend the same money twice, and I can keep local records. Once the net comes back up, everyone can enter in their TX records manually and let the network figure out the rest. Any attempts to spend the same money twice would be prevented unless you somehow managed to spend from the same wallet in both fractions of the bitcoin network, which seems like it would be hard to pull off.
I'm sorry dude, but if the bombs are flying and buildings burning, just admit it: Bitcoin is not a suitable currency.
And state issued currency that could be worthless after a civil war or invasion would be better? Technically you could argue that bitcoin, being not issued by a government or controlling entity and possibly still in use in less volatile parts of the world is more likely to retain its value, as would a cold-storage BTC wallet hidden until afterwards when the internet is back.
However if you are thinking along the lines of of gold, silver and gems, then yes, bitcoin can't compare .
I would add the dollar to that list as well.
Your best bet then is probably gold.
Also, as another has pointed out, this is ridiculously implausible when compared with other currency options.
Many invest money in btc that could have been invested in a hard commodity with emergency currency value like gold or silver. Gold and silver will continue to exist in a normal, usable fashion regardless of the state of online connectivity.
The problems you describe are problems for just about every currency right now. How much of your money do you have in cash, and how much is in the bank? Do you think you will still be able to use the bank in a situation like the one you describe?
1. Venomsnake's law - every discussion on Hacker's news degrades to bitcoins.
2. Goldilocks apocalypse - every goldbug, bitcoin miner and similar depends on the crash of civilization in just the right way that everything will be the same but his economic decisions will put him on top with the pure strength of speculation. Whatever assets you have the federal government will be able to confiscate if the need is dire enough. Whatever protection the law gives you can be reverted.
There is no safety. To be able to claim and hold to a property you rely on massive infrastructure. If the dollar and the federal government crashes - it will vaporize too.
As for gold though, it takes a long-term view of the apocalypse. In the immediate aftermath, no one will care about gold. Guns, food, etc will all be at a premium. It might take a decade or so for people to care about gold, and even then enough of the population will probably be dead that gold can be had by looting for jewellery that no longer has an owner.
edit: to be clear, the utilities of these items is relative, think a DAG. gold > bitcoin. food > gold. transport to safe haven > food,guns. Maybe. Medicine > gold, also. Not trying to say anything special about gold, I mostly agree that it has very little use to justify its value.
During a civil war, the local economy will be destabilized. This means that local production will drop off, and most things you want you will have to import (this includes the service of fleeing the country). In addition, your local currency will have become destabilized (possibly permanently), so outsiders won't find it desirable. Gold has a market outside your country, so outsiders would be willing to accept it as currency.
Basically, what you want is a currency with a global value, because it won't be affected by local conditions. Gold satisfies this criterion, as does USD in many cases.
I think most of the debate upthread can be summarized thusly: This criterion depends on a separation between local economic conditions, and global ones. In the US there is not such a distinction. If we suffer an economic collapse (whatever the cause), we're taking the world with us. As such, there is no currency with the properties that people are looking for.
Yes exactly. And I hear too many people in the US say they feel like we are on the verge of some kind of massive revolution or civil war, which seems preposterous to me. Your average person would rather just get by than get involved in a bloody, civil conflict. There is a growing economic divide in the US, as well as a somewhat large rate of unemployment (mostly made up of the young and self-entitled, and older folks who's skills have become fairly obsolete), but compare it to countries where there have been actual civil wars in recent times and we're nowhere near that level of destitution and disparity. You need to get into multi-generational inequity, corruption, and despair before enough people will put aside their own relative comfortable complacency to get involved in armed conflict.
So buying gold for the coming apocalypse is silly.
You could also argue that if Europe collapses, it will take down the US too. It could go either way, or there may be some kind of localized collapse. All continents have their Powers That Be, and those of other continents might well be able to detach themselves from one continent going down. All that really matters is order, and the ability to keep things chugging along.
- small gold rings are good currency: you can easily divide it, and you can carry small amounts on your person. For some reason, people valued that more than paper money. - a black market for guns (and ammo) will spring up; cheap POS guns will have ludicrous prices, so if you plan to have one, it's wise to have them before The Collapse - Don't open your door for anyone. - Be armed. Seriously. - Be prepared to seriously consider whether to drive _through_ a pedestrian, rather than risk that his friends will kidnap you as soon as you stop. - Neighborhood friendships are extremely valuable.
.. that's all I can remember off the top of my head. I'm sure someone else can link the originals. Basically, though, it's comparatively easy to stockpile small pieces of gold jewelry ahead of time, and people will tend to accept it in trade. (Water/food/bullets/guns are of course even more valuable, but those aren't as transportable.)
In a functional society no one wants to pay for their goods with food or water.
Gold is useful because everyone, everywhere recognizes its value independent of any other entity. This happens simply as a function of gold's rarity and manipulability; if you're looking for a natural resource to stand in as a currency, gold meets the requirements better than other materials. This is so, and will remain so despite any human ongoings.
The things you listed are valuable because they have direct utilitarian value for drinking, eating, defense, etc. Gold is valuable because it can be traded for things with utilitarian value.
Gold coins (British Sovereigns) were supposedly part of the emergency survival kit given to US and British fighter pilots during the first Iraq war.
Food, water, and fuel would obviously be valuable too, but they're harder to carry a lot of.
Guns? Well, ammo really. Guns are plentiful in the USA and are extremely durable. Ammo is more suitable to currency type usage, being handy during the crisis, comes in small units comparable to coins, and the value of each is around a dollar making it convenient for smaller commonplace transactions.
Water and fuel.
How about: potable water, non-perishable food, gasoline, batteries, tools (including weapons), and other commodities that will be scarce and have intrinsic value during a crisis?
I believe cyprus had to find out the hard way as well sans civil war. They had internet, but no access to bank accounts (still very limited to this day). And I doubt the the 25%+ in spain and greece are much better off…
Call me a nut but at this point, people who have the means should put their money in things they can live off of sustainably or at least partially (PV's, rain water catch, DIY small greenhouse) because things are not getting any better globally and we seriously can't expect the printing press to get us out of this.
Oh yeah, DOW closed above 15000. quelle chance.
Yes, clearly, it's better in all cases to use paper fiat currency dependent on things like a robust, modern, well-defended, and rationally-operated government infrastructure to function as your primary value store.
Actually the chief effect of the continual hashing is robustness against netsplits. By defining the longer-hashed chain as prevailing, global reconciliation is actually possible. All protocol-following parties agree - double spends on the smaller side lose out.
Which means that one can't really trust generic spends in the cut-off area.
Replace "bitcoiners" with "crypto-anarchists" and your argument is more plausible. I like bitcoin, but I have never considered it the answer to a civil war type situation. In those situations, wealth is equivalent to utility (food, gas, water, and yes, guns).
2) You think REGULAR currencies have much more value than cryptocurrencies during these types of crises?
3) If Syria hypothetically still has a working "intranet" but not a working "internet", then Bitcoin will continue working just fine for them while they're not connected to the rest of us. After the Syrians re-connect, their branch will be withered, but not dead. Re-merging will be automatic when the Internet returns.
But difficulty adjustments occur every 2016 blocks, not instantly. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty#How_often_does_the_dif...
I'm pretty sure the only practical answer is (1). That pretty much answers your question (2).
This time when you end up at Ellis Island, you don't just have the shirt on your back.
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Also you need to learn about http://brainwallet.org/ to store bitcoins in your head by merely memorizing a human-friendly passphrase!
"Electrum [...] allows you to recover your wallet from a secret phrase." [1]
If conditions favor liquidity and portability, and your currency is stable, it's a rational choice as a value store.
Your _best_ value store is investments which grow in value. In a well-functioning economy, stocks, other investment vehicles, a business, agricultural or other productive land, etc.
Where this isn't the case, your most valuable assets are those which can protect you, support you, and/or get you to where you will be safe. If you've got value left over at this point, a convenient store that's readily convertible at your destination is best. If things aren't horribly bad, a fiat/hard currency (even bitcoin might work), gold, or other items of high but convertible value.
One argument in bitcoin's favor (and I'm not generally a fan) is that you can store immense quantities in very small physical space, or (assuming communications) transmit them elsewhere quickly. The main caveat is their utility (and value) once you're outside the trouble zone. Assuming there is an "outside the trouble zone".