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Comment by annnnd | Hacker News Reader

I think his point was different... Big launch can cloud your vision about what would suit the real consumers, so it can be counter productive.

To me that sounds about right: do a big launch only after you are 100% sure you have a valid product. Maybe start as Beta and launch 1.0 only when you have a solid and loyal user base?

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You can't ever be 100% sure you have a valid product before launch. Especially with something that needs network effects to work. Just launch it and see if it sticks.

I don't think the vision was clouded by the big launch, only the dream about selling to Facebook for a billion. And when you start a business to flip - it's hard not to flop.

> You can't ever be 100% sure you have a valid product before launch

Beta / quiet launch will give you enough information about the product to be much safer when you make your launch. I agree that 100% is an overstatement though.

I'm sure quite EveryMe was in beta for a while. PG and most others tell you to launch "too early" for a reason. Waiting around until you feel "100% sure" is like Steve Jobs giving out the iPhone to everyone he meets before launch :)

Thanks for the downvotes ;) Its a classical greek tragedy - hubris in action. When you think your launch will be as big as Instagram and Zuckerberg will take you out to lunch next week you're destined to loose faith and self-esteem post launch, even if things aren't actually that bad. And when that happens you start looking for other ideas instead of looking at the launch as just the beginning of something great.

Been there, done that. Not fun. Or launch early, thinking everyone will hate your product, and then you're up for a positive surprise.

They are building a social network for families. So they don't need to have lots of users, just a large part of a few families to have the network effect tested.

The post is about the launch of EveryMe, not the social network for families. EveryMe is a general purpose group messaging platform, and like WhatsApp/Kik/etc probably needs network effects I'd have thought.

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