Comment by edw519 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by edw519 | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

If you are an entrepreneur starting a business, you should already know that the odds are against you. This is simply a statistical fact.

Then the best way to succeed is not to understand that the odds are against you, it's to change those odds. If investors won't invest, find out why and change those odds. If no one wants to join you, find out why and change those odds. If customers don't buy, find out why and change those odds. If things don't work, find out why and change those odds.

Not only that, but most successes rely on countless variables, and most of these variables are out of your control.

Then find a way to work in a world defined by less-than-countless variables, most of which are within your control. You can't control what others will think or do, but there are things you can determine that will affect you plan of action.

By deduction, most successes are lucky ones.

Remove the words "By deduction" and your sentence is generally true. Keep those words and get a chuckle from those who know how to alter their landscape to remove luck from the equation.

Problem is, most people who want to "start a startup" start from a baseline scenario that is already very risky. Especially the standard "let's start a B2C company in a field I know nothing about, because I can write code".

You're completely right that most first-time entrepreneurs should be mitigating risk [1], but the easiest ways are usually not part of their thought process. Things like "let's start a consultancy", or "let's build a B2B company in a business that I validate in advance by getting people to actually pay for my product's development", or even "let's take a working business model and import it to a new geographic location".

[1]: I assume here that most first-time entrepreneurs care more about the expected value of their business, rather than other things like "changing the world" or "running a 100-person business". This isn't entirely accurate, but is very close for most non-rich people, and actually a lot of the ways to mitigate risk can also increase the chance of these things as well.

While the advice here is good, I think it approaches the issue from the wrong angle. You can't reasonably expect to just up and change what people think or how they react. You can change what you do or how you present it. What changes is not the reaction to, and it's most certainly not the odds of, the exact thing you're currently doing succeeding.

It's the product/service/approach/target audience/etc. that needs to change. The "odds" are an output, something you can only change by altering your inputs.

I agree with you. Knowing what's the current status of the "odds" is a good piece of information to have in order to to know how to adapt/change the inputs.

But my main point from the post is I want people to be OK and accepting of "failures". Because in reality, it isn't a failure. It is a lesson that you learned for your next attempt.

One day someone asked Thomas Edison “Aren’t you ashamed that you have failed 99 times?” Edison replied “I have not failed, rather I’ve learnt 99 ways in which an electric bulb would not lit up”

^^ This is what I mean by not fearing "failures"

Thanks Ed. This really great. I'm in my mid 30's and looking to start a company.

There is a lot that can be done to mitigate risk. My biggest issue is that my time is limited and I don't have the luxury of taking a couple years off to make a go at it (not yet at least).

So I am trying to find a potential business (software related) that I can build on the side that gains enough traction that I need to devote full time to it.

I feel like under my circumstances, I shouldn't even try but I think its worth an effort.

Why do you think you shouldn't try? As long as you approach it as a side project unless things take off (don't bet the farm, don't sacrifice family), all you are left with risking is your time.

While every situation is unique, building on the side is a common precursor for failure.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com