The odds are statistically equal that we're the first civilization and that we're the 5 millionth (in this iteration of the universe).
So with no other knowledge, it's slightly more likely that we are the first civilization than the 5 millionth.
Of course it's tricky to talk about the "first" civilization in the face of relativistic time, but I'm assuming that there is some way to have an ordering of all civilizations.