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I love these time-capsule style re-posts.

Me too. It's one of the only ways of keeping people that make long-term predictions accountable. Usually, no one calls them out if they were wrong, they only get the attention and praise if they were right.

True. I think if we analyzed the predictions of so called 'experts' before and after the fact of any event, the result would be extremely embarrassing.

But then, we should already know that.

I seem to recall that something along these lines for political punditry was discussed in "The Signal and the Noise" by that chap Nate Silver.

I think (but could well be mis-remembering) one of his conclusions was that since these pundits are for entertainment value rather than serious prediction, nobody in charge of putting them in front of the camera cares much.

It's also about half of Nasim Taleb's content. He repeatedly asserts that outside of the hard sciences like physics, there are no experts.

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