Mostly correct, but what's at stake here isn't the cable fees so much as the local/affiliate fees. Those are still a decent business for companies like NewsCorp (and others), but let's face it: local affiliate television is dying on the vine, one way or the other. It faces a fundamental challenge much more significant than the one posed by Aereo.
The entire premise behind affiliate television is that local station owners can license the rights to national programming, and then exercise a quasi-monopoly over distribution of that content to local markets. (If I'm the FOX affiliate in NYC, for instance, I pay FOX for the rights to its shows, and I have exclusive rights to air those shows in NYC).
This business model was threatened the minute the internet took hold, really, because the very idea of local exclusivity is anachronistic now. It's one of the two horse-and-buggy concepts of the 21st century content distribution business (the other being time-bound content viewership). It is threatened much more extensively by Netflix, by YouTube, by Hulu, by Microsoft, by iTunes, etc., than by any one startup. It is threatened by virtue of its irrelevancy in the modern, globally connected era.
The idea of moving television networks to paid subscription models has been bandied about for at least a decade now. IIRC, it was NBC who first proposed this idea in the early 2000s. Indeed, this may come to pass at some point: not because of the likes of Aereo, but because broadcast television starts to make less and less business sense as time goes on (whereas content ownership and distributorship is still viable). Eventually, we'll probably have nothing but content shops, who distribute their wares across all channels -- perhaps offering different tiers of the products at different prices in different channels, and/or extracting licensing fees to different distributors.
As a consumer, expect a generally upward trend in content pricing in the long run (i.e., free to paid). It'll just depend on whom you're paying. Advertising-subsizided, free content will still exist to the extent that distribution channels like YouTube continue to thrive.