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Comment by npguy | Hacker News Reader

That statement was based on the common sentiment that 'let me keep out of this stuff it might crash anytime', particularly since everyone has seen Bitcoin crash before.

Your data point proves that this assumption could be wrong. And there is no way we can find out if you are in the majority or not.

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That sentiment may be common, but it's by no means universal. Even if I suspected a crash were coming (which I do -- end of this month or early next month, after it hits $200-225), that wouldn't affect the fact that I'm buying, simply the price I'd be willing to buy at. It's all just a matter of risk vs reward.

Why do you think $200-$225 is the number it will hit? Why do you think end of this month or next month? Why not this week or 1 year from now?

The time estimation is based on the number -- just based on the rate of increase, I'm probably not far off. The number, though, is complete guesswork, purely based on discussions I've had with people about BTC's current rise; no evidence in the least. I have little enough to lose here that I'm willing to go by my gut on it; if it turns out I'm wrong, I won't be losing any sleep, which is always nice.

Its also a self fulfilling prophecy. When everyone colludes to start selling at the $200 mark, it will certainly burst.

That's a large part of why I'm thinking it'll happen. There's something "different" about $200 when people talk about the rise of Bitcoin; that number just makes people uncomfortable. I don't think it'll rise much beyond that, this time around. (Though I do think that the eventual value of BTC will be much, much, much higher, years down the road.)

Why do you think $200-$225 is the number

Indeed:

I'm Raising My Bitcoin Price Target To $400

http://www.businessinsider.com/im-raising-my-bitcoin-price-t...

Just some advice - if you think the market will top out at $200, take your profits at 20-25% less gain than your maximum. You are highly unlikely to predict the exact peek, and highly likely to overestimate it. Greed and delusion are powerful forces.

I'd be selling now, and have sold 75% of my holdings.

I might be a buyer again at $20.

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