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Comment by daeken | Hacker News Reader

> We are convinced that nobody is buying Bitcoins right now to sell it for a profit before the music stops (in which case it would be a bubble).

I'm not sure where they got this impression. I've been buying BTC explicitly for this purpose for a bit now; just disappointed that I didn't buy more, given the insane increases I've seen. I know dozens of people buying BTC just to make money from it before the next crash/dip, and that cycle will continue for a while yet.

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Unless the post was edited, the quote is:

> It is possible that most folks are not buying Bitcoins right now to sell it for a profit before the music stops (in which case it would be a bubble).

Certainly many are, if not most. Otherwise, why are they buying bitcoin? To store value? To buy drugs and passports? Not, I suspect, to buy electronics, for which fiat currency does just fine.

Also, look at the order volume. People are buying $10k chunks of bitcoin. If they are not buying for speculation, what value are they receiving?

The post was indeed edited; the original quote is in my parent comment.

> Certainly many are, if not most. Otherwise, why are they buying bitcoin? To store value? To buy drugs and passports? Not, I suspect, to buy electronics, for which fiat currency does just fine.

I know many people buying BTC based on a belief that they will be dramatically more valuable in the future, if BTC takes off in a serious way. Not too many uses for it outside of that and short-term speculation, though, right now.

> a belief that they will be dramatically more valuable in the future

And the definition of speculation: "engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, especially trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price"

It's not necessarily a bad move to speculate on BTC. But it is certainly not based on any current fundamentals. Speculative bubbles ALWAYS crash, though some rise far above the value they crashed from after a long period of stabilization and development of fundamentals.

That statement was based on the common sentiment that 'let me keep out of this stuff it might crash anytime', particularly since everyone has seen Bitcoin crash before.

Your data point proves that this assumption could be wrong. And there is no way we can find out if you are in the majority or not.

That sentiment may be common, but it's by no means universal. Even if I suspected a crash were coming (which I do -- end of this month or early next month, after it hits $200-225), that wouldn't affect the fact that I'm buying, simply the price I'd be willing to buy at. It's all just a matter of risk vs reward.

Why do you think $200-$225 is the number it will hit? Why do you think end of this month or next month? Why not this week or 1 year from now?

The time estimation is based on the number -- just based on the rate of increase, I'm probably not far off. The number, though, is complete guesswork, purely based on discussions I've had with people about BTC's current rise; no evidence in the least. I have little enough to lose here that I'm willing to go by my gut on it; if it turns out I'm wrong, I won't be losing any sleep, which is always nice.

Its also a self fulfilling prophecy. When everyone colludes to start selling at the $200 mark, it will certainly burst.

That's a large part of why I'm thinking it'll happen. There's something "different" about $200 when people talk about the rise of Bitcoin; that number just makes people uncomfortable. I don't think it'll rise much beyond that, this time around. (Though I do think that the eventual value of BTC will be much, much, much higher, years down the road.)

Why do you think $200-$225 is the number

Indeed:

I'm Raising My Bitcoin Price Target To $400

http://www.businessinsider.com/im-raising-my-bitcoin-price-t...

Just some advice - if you think the market will top out at $200, take your profits at 20-25% less gain than your maximum. You are highly unlikely to predict the exact peek, and highly likely to overestimate it. Greed and delusion are powerful forces.

I'd be selling now, and have sold 75% of my holdings.

I might be a buyer again at $20.

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