As a baseball stat head, I can extend your analogy.

In late 1990s, when Quinton McCracken first published DIPS theory, it was postulated that pitchers had zero control over their "luck based" factors (BABIP, in this case; expanded to include LD%, LOB%, HR/FB%, etc.)

Now there exists enough data to identify outliers, to whom the theory of DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Stats) doesn't apply. Matt Cain, for example, is acknowledged to outperform his DIPS.

No matter what the statistics suggest, people will believe they're the Matt Cain. And some will be. By definition, they're the outliers that our statistical models do not account for.