If you set up a tumblr with your own domain name, what's the problem?
I'm not on Posterous, but I am on Tumblr and I do worry the company won't always be around once the cash runs dry or they get acquihired.
I like the WordPress strategy of strong data portability features within a hosted environment and an open source, self-hosted option. This way even if WordPress.com (Automattic) gets acquired, WordPress.org will always be an option without having to get comfortable with an entirely new platform. Of coarse, if you're a developer you could always just use an open source static site generator like Jekyll or Middleman.
But I am reluctant to use tumblr for semi-permanent content; I mostly use it for posts with a short shelf life. So maybe I agree with you subconsciously.
Edit: typos