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Comment by ChuckMcM | Hacker News Reader

Whenever someone pitches me some 'sure fire' deal that will get me 12 - 15% returns for sure, I ask the obvious question which is "Why did all the rich people who have hundreds of people on staff searching to find these deals pass you by so that you could pitch me?" Kind of fun to watch them try to wriggle through the pitch.

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Clearly, you should be skeptical of anyone offering a "surefire deal" on anything. Skepticism is healthy and good.

But suppose the founders of Airbnb came to you when they were raising angel money. I'm sure they were convinced at that time (maybe objectively irrationally) that investing in their company was a "surefire deal." They were passed on by Fred Wilson (the equivalent of your "rich person with hundreds of staff"), among countless others I'm sure.

By this point, their returns are certainly far more than 12-15%.

And there risk is higher than 'surefire' :-) I've invested in, been part of, and advised startups so I understand those risks. And, for example when FB stock dropped to 17 I bought a chunk and put a limit order to sell it at $28 (I ended up getting it at 18 and my limit order was purchase + $10) But again, it was a lot riskier than "surefire". When people guarantee results without risk, that is when I say "oh really? and just how do you do that?"

There are lots of ideas, but the tried and true one is 'Ponzi Scheme' :-)

Alright -- I think I understand your initial point now. Definitely agree with everything you just said. Thanks for elaborating.

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