Some things about what you said weren't entirely clear (to me at least), but having read through 1, 3 and some of the relevant parts of the report referenced in 3 here are some comments I'd like to add. For any HNer interested I would say the report is more interesting [0]

If you are between 18-65 and got the flu vaccine this year, eli's comment is correct and it is unlikely that you will get the flu.

The key point behind the articles is that flu vaccines very well might not help reduce flu related mortality. So as an issue of public policy are not as effective as preached. One guess as to why this is, is because the vaccine doesn't produce antibodies well in the at risk population with weakened immune systems.

The rest of the research says what I think most HNers probably know, if you're 18-65 the efficacy of the vaccine is dependent on the strains in the vaccine, and what strain of flu is going around. Even well matched vacines don't always work as well as hoped.

In the general case, if you're 18-65 and healthy, the vaccine is about 60% effective, and in the case of h3n2 is about 88% effective. All of this comes from [0]

[0] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/files/80/ccivi%20report.pdf