Comment by justsee | Hacker News Reader

Comment by justsee | Hacker News Reader

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According to one of the leading experts on influenza (Tom Jefferson) there's no good scientific evidence that flu vaccines are of much use [1].

Jefferson has also concluded the same regarding Tamiflu. Forbes covered this dearth of supportive data in a piece a few days ago [2].

A few months ago the NYT ran an article reporting on the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota announcing the same opinion on flu vaccine effectiveness, (which the article states is apparently heresy in the public health world) [3].

Fascinating that a significant, widely-supported health policy appears to be faith-based medicine masquerading as science-based medicine.

I would emphasize that Jefferson doesn't say the vaccine is harmful or that it doesn't work. He merely points out there's no good scientific evidence indicating it's of much use. If The Atlantic's article is to be believed, that was enough to get him ostracized from the medical establishment:

“Tom Jefferson has taken a lot of heat just for saying, ‘Here’s the evidence: it’s not very good,’” says Majumdar. “The reaction has been so dogmatic and even hysterical that you’d think he was advocating stealing babies.”

Such classic groupthink in an apparently science-driven community is rather troubling, considering the significant social impact of professionals preferring consensus over hard data.

[1] http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/11/does-the...

[2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/harlankrumholz/2013/01/08/the-my...

[3] http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/reassessing-flu-sho...

Some things about what you said weren't entirely clear (to me at least), but having read through 1, 3 and some of the relevant parts of the report referenced in 3 here are some comments I'd like to add. For any HNer interested I would say the report is more interesting [0]

If you are between 18-65 and got the flu vaccine this year, eli's comment is correct and it is unlikely that you will get the flu.

The key point behind the articles is that flu vaccines very well might not help reduce flu related mortality. So as an issue of public policy are not as effective as preached. One guess as to why this is, is because the vaccine doesn't produce antibodies well in the at risk population with weakened immune systems.

The rest of the research says what I think most HNers probably know, if you're 18-65 the efficacy of the vaccine is dependent on the strains in the vaccine, and what strain of flu is going around. Even well matched vacines don't always work as well as hoped.

In the general case, if you're 18-65 and healthy, the vaccine is about 60% effective, and in the case of h3n2 is about 88% effective. All of this comes from [0]

[0] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/files/80/ccivi%20report.pdf

The flu shot is excellent this year; a near perfect match [0]. In other words, the vaccine is very reliable for protecting immunocompetent individuals capable of producing antibodies.

Re: the vaccine not protecting the immunocompromised. It's important for caregivers of young children, the elderly, etc. to get vaccinated to reduce the probability of transmitting the virus to susceptible people in their care. You can interrupt the chain of transmission.

And an open letter to the three people I heard yesterday claim that they once got the flu after getting vaccinated: no, you didn't. The flu shot is a killed vaccine, which means it is incapable of causing infection. After getting vaccinated it takes two weeks for your body to finish producing antibodies, so it's possible you were infected with the virus from a regular, environmental source. Basically, it was a fluke that you got sick, and that experience should not dissuade you from getting vaccinated. The intranasal vaccine is live attenuated, which means the virus is hypothetically capable of reproducing, but according to the CDC, it does not cause the flu [2].

Please get vaccinated. Check http://flushot.healthmap.org/ for providers in your area.

[0] http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ (see Antigenic Characterization)

[1] http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/keyfacts.htm

[2] http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/nasalspray.htm#give-you-the-...

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