I think it's the former. This feels to me like a marketing strategy and loss leader to grab a new set of customers and eventually migrate them into the full Basecamp product.
I could see people saying to themselves, "I love this email list thing, but it would be cool if we also had a calendar or could create lists, etc..." which prompts the upgrade to Basecamp.
The $10 one-time fee then becomes a way to separate the customers who are at least willing to take out their credit card for something like this, vs. those who would never do that. It will probably end up being a decent marketing tool that pays for itself over time.