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Comment by mwsherman | Hacker News Reader

Keep in mind that life expectancy is a statistical notion. Something specific is going to kill you. You won’t die or live 30 minutes longer or shorter as a result of a cigarette or a meal many years in the past.

Rather, these behaviors are correlated with outcomes, and average to 20 or 30 minutes or whatever. This sort of daily accounting is misleading.

Similarly, the notion that we are living longer largely has to do with less infant mortality. Specific people are not dying at birth that otherwise would have, pushing up the expectancy. Someone else’s not-dying-at-birth hasn’t made you healthier.

Now, is the “20 minutes a day” thing a noble lie, to encourage good behavior? Perhaps. But that should be put to scientific scrutiny too: to what degree have people changed their behavior due to these notions, and what’s the outcome?

Can I add two years to my life by regularly reading pop-sci recommendations?

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Exercising for 20 minutes a day to add 60 minutes to my life sounds like a good plan.

I wonder if other things are reproducible. Is the "1 alcoholic drink" thing been replicated when correcting for income? Lots of rich people may have 1 drink a day, and so this pushes up the average of the "1 drink a day people", but it doesn't mean you can replicate it.

I've always hypothesised alcohol consumption is largely independent of income.

At both ends of the wealth spectrum you find people drinking far more alcohol than is healthy, just in different forms.

Yes, but what group of people drinks exactly 1 drink a day?

I'm aware this could be a just-so story I've explained to myself.

I do. I usually have one glass of alcoholic drink with dinner (beer or wine, depending on the food). I don't often drink when I go out, except on special occasions.

The fact that you 'go out' (especially often enough to distinguish between 'normal' occasions and 'special' occasions) puts you pretty firmly in the 'wealthy' class (at least as far as most of the world is concerned), and the other implications of your class will likely contribute to a longer life than someone who is less well off.

So, will you live longer _because_ you have one drink a day, or is the fact that you're able to have one drink a day simply a byproduct of a lifestyle that will naturally lead to a longer life?

Uh, no. "Go out" simply means "attend social event."

You're telling me that a young man in the poorest part of Africa doesn't "go out" with his buddies now and then?

In the context, 'go out' clearly meant 'go out to meals at restaurants where alcoholic beverages are the social norm.'

Yes, I'm absolutely telling you that a significant portion of the world does not have the resources to do that (even 'now and then').

Consider that the alcohol thing isn't necessarily fantastic (in the difficult-to-believe sense). I've noticed that people on good terms with alcohol tend to be cheerful, sociable folks, and it seems to be fairly well established at this point that being relaxed, happy, and sociable are positive factors in both quality of life and longevity.

It's not related to income. Moderate consumption of alcohol reduces the risk of heart disease.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcoholic_beverage#Longevity

One would think quite the opposite, since presumably you'd be sitting at a desk while reading them.

Gots me a standing desk. :)

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