How to Gain or Lose 30 Minutes of Life Every Day
scientificamerican.com
scientificamerican.com
Rather, these behaviors are correlated with outcomes, and average to 20 or 30 minutes or whatever. This sort of daily accounting is misleading.
Similarly, the notion that we are living longer largely has to do with less infant mortality. Specific people are not dying at birth that otherwise would have, pushing up the expectancy. Someone else’s not-dying-at-birth hasn’t made you healthier.
Now, is the “20 minutes a day” thing a noble lie, to encourage good behavior? Perhaps. But that should be put to scientific scrutiny too: to what degree have people changed their behavior due to these notions, and what’s the outcome?
Can I add two years to my life by regularly reading pop-sci recommendations?
I wonder if other things are reproducible. Is the "1 alcoholic drink" thing been replicated when correcting for income? Lots of rich people may have 1 drink a day, and so this pushes up the average of the "1 drink a day people", but it doesn't mean you can replicate it.
At both ends of the wealth spectrum you find people drinking far more alcohol than is healthy, just in different forms.
I'm aware this could be a just-so story I've explained to myself.
So, will you live longer _because_ you have one drink a day, or is the fact that you're able to have one drink a day simply a byproduct of a lifestyle that will naturally lead to a longer life?
You're telling me that a young man in the poorest part of Africa doesn't "go out" with his buddies now and then?
Yes, I'm absolutely telling you that a significant portion of the world does not have the resources to do that (even 'now and then').
My personal favorite:
http://rawfoodsos.com/2010/07/07/the-china-study-fact-or-fal...
Also see here for a very thorough refutation: http://rawfoodsos.com/2010/08/03/the-china-study-a-formal-an...
First let me just say that my opinion is that I don't think there is anyone on this earth who knows for sure exactly what red meat does to humans and whether it is good or bad. I choose to believe the study for now.
Now I can start rationalizing why, and reputing Denise's reputings. Unfortunately I don't have time for this. I wish I could spend all my time talking about red meat (I don't) but I can't.
As a side note/joke - Denise is 25. I'm 25. I don't recommend anyone take any health advice from 25 year olds :)
Primitive Nutrition 36: The Infamous Ancel Keys? Part I http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDwjkv1FW5g
Also, Denise Minger's "refutation" is hardly to be trusted. She even plagiarized this man's work on Ancel Keys. http://www.plantpositive.com/blog/2012/3/21/a-reply-to-denis...
[1] http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-overweight-surviv...
For individuals, BMI suffers in that it generally understates obesity in unfit, but "BMI-compliant" individuals, while overstating obesity in fit, BMI-noncompliant individuals. Which means that interventions are not indicated for those who would benefit and are indicated for those who would not.
Generally, there's also the issue that there are large natural variations in healthy human weights, and no single target or designator will be appropriate for all. Fitness is multidimensional, and any attempt to reduce it to a single metric will likely fail.
My lay recollection is that slightly higher-than-prescribed BMI is positively associated with greater life expectancy. Rationales vary, but among them, sick or ill individuals typically have lower-than-average bodyweights (skewing life expectancy down for low BMI scores), and athletes typically have elevated BMIs. Studies of Scandinavian Olympic athletes shows a pronounced lifetime mortality benefit to having competed in games (which tends to balance out the notoriously poor life expectancies of US professional athletes, particularly football, many associated with cumulative injuries sustained).
The causal links are obviously much harder to tease out, but the correlation between eating red meat and a shorter lifespan is strong enough that it shouldn't be a controversial statement.
Those who aren't willing to suspend disbelief and take on a reasonably skeptical mindset on these matters will get what they deserve.
Believe the stuff is good? Believe it's bad? Either way, best of luck to ya. ;)
One set of studies specifically noted precursors of colon cancer conditions immediately following ingestion of red meat, with seems like a bad thing.
That said, I'm cautious but not convinced by these studies. I eat beef, though not daily.
There is no evidence that 20 minutes of exercise adds an hour to your life. Taking the aggregate information around years and dividing it into days is not a meaningful operation and I'm sure that Spiegelhalter knows that as he says that this method of displaying the data "seems to resonate with people".
As an aside, I've heard Dr Spiegelhalter regularly contributing to More or Less[1] and he seems to be a well informed scientist.
He is extremely passionate about explaining uncertainty and risk to ordinary people. As an example, plenty of people think that "you either get cancer or not, so it's 50-50, and might as well leave it to chance". In other cases, politicians ask scientists for the "worst possible outcome" of an event, and then react as if it was a certainty or at least 10% probability, while in reality the risk might be extremely small.
Most people have trouble with the very concept of uncertainty. Microlives, and their opposite, micromorts (1-in-1M chance of dying while doing something) are helpful in comparing improbable-but-terrible events in terms of certain-but-insignificant, easier to understand concepts.
I find exercising lonely, painful, boring, and stupidity inducing - although I completely believe others obtain opposite results. If I had a choice for myself between exercising for 20 minutes, then dying, or dying immediately, I'd choose the latter.
The non-exercising part of my life is spent pleasantly or sleeping, so I see a net gain of 27 minutes ((60 minutes life extension - 20 minutes exercising) * 2/3(awake factor)) for the first 20 minutes/day of exercising, but a net 7 minute loss for the next 40 minutes ((30 minutes life extension - 40 minutes exercising) * 2/3(awake factor)).
Am I using these numbers correctly?
Red meat is a perfect example. There are no convincing studies that demonstrate that it as an independent factor reduces life expectancy. If anything, quite the opposite is true, based on previous generations or the health of populations where red meat is very heavily consumed but suffer few other adverse major health factors.
Takes very broad and multivariable dependent statistics and tries to parse them down to micro lifestyle criteria.
Is sitting really that bad? Or is smoking really not that bad?
I have a script on my work computer that runs once every hour, reminding me to get up and making suggestions on things I can do: make some tea, do some situps, do some pushups, do some leg lifts, go up and down the stairs, take a walk around the block, and so on.
I lack self-discipline but am very obedient, so it has been extremely successful for me.
Does anyone have any references for this? All I can find are some articles reporting on one study.
Exercising every day is not going to keep you alive if you die from emphysema, so there is no 'cancel out effect' in practice.
On the other hand, smoking not only shortens your life, it also makes (part of it) less enjoyable. Statistically, smokers are ill more often and get chronic health problems earlier.
Also, I bet the 'sitting is bad' meme will see some nuance added to it in due time. Even ignoring that, this message talks of sitting for two hours, without break. That, IMO, is very rare. Lunch, coffee, toilet breaks?
Here's a tip: keep yourself very well hydrated. My goal is always 1L water before lunch, 1L after. No software tricks needed!
(Also, watch the TED talk by the referenced professor. He doesn't ignore quality of life.)
It isn't like all humans, upon hitting 80, automatically have low quality of life. My grandparents are not as spry as me, but they are always cheerful and probably get out more than I do.
That actually sounds like a great idea. Once an hour, head down to the street and walk a couple blocks.