It doesn't work like that in practice. Football is very dependent on matchups. Coaches will vary gameplans from week-to-week to exploit weaknesses they see on film.
Matchup would be a part of the model. My experience with predictive modeling in various domains has taught me that people tend to underestimate how predictive they are (NFL offensive/defensive coaches are no exception).
I'm interested in doing some predictive modeling for a couple of project ideas I've been kicking around. Are there any specific resources you would recommend as good starter material?
Agreed. Also, assuming you could create a successful predictive model the advantage would be short term. All coaches would hop on the bandwagon.
How optimistic of you.
It could still be useful for finding tendencies, though.