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Comment by EmadKhair | Hacker News Reader

I actually agree with what you said! the subscriptions we are paying today is only a tiny fraction of what it actually cost AI companies like Claude and Codex. either it will shift into running those agents in your own setup or pay an absurred number. anyways as you said the pendulum will swing back for sure!

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The ship has sailed. For personal use, maybe, but supply and demand are going to dictate that there is going to be a massive ramp in memory and compute production, and when the prices inevitably normalize due to the increase of availability, there will be a push to use local inference. It goes back and forth, and unless there is a strong roadblock put in place, the current generation of models are already powerful enough that incremental improvements in the run up to increased hardware availability will mean that these tools are here to stay. Even if draconian laws were put into place, the prevalence and availability of open models and the tools to train them means you can't put the genie back in the bottle.

Definitely not. Look at what Deepseek costs. AI companies spend a fraction on inference, it is not expensive for them to run these models like it is to train them. Coding by hand is not coming back.

Large enterprises are paying unsubsidized metered rates. I work at a firm with around 700 employees. The p90 engineer is spending $2k/wk.

Our business-side employees have only begun using agents, and their spending accelerating. They're claiming their ROI is massively positive and have an enormous willing to spend.

Prices will probably go down because of the emerging price war between Anthropic and OpenAI, but there are many firms willing to spend.

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