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I will believe that an AI model is conscious when someone runs a simulation of water on a GPU that can make someone wet.

Consciousness is a physical phenomenon and only emerges from a specific set of substrates. Intelligence != consciousness.

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i think an alternate analogy would be roughly that consciousness is like a process with file descriptors connected to stdin and stdout, rather than elsewhere (which might be subconscious, a la gnu's screen or tmux, or just filesystem including device driver device special files).

What is the specific set of substrates?

Roughly, a brain like the one that is in your skull. Just because I can't off hand describe the physical composition of a brain doesn't mean it's not obviously different from the physical composition of a GPU.

Why that particular substrate instead of a slightly narrower one? Like that would include you and your family but not animals like octopi, dolphins, etc?

Who says I don't include octopi or dolphins?

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