There is another aspect that gets missed in this and is not given due attention (because it is not in the interest of the attention generators).
What you say might come to pass and pay gets reduced or jobs are lost, but guess what skilled people with access to the same AI will do - they will start out competing bigger organizations.
During industrialization, capital dictated who could build the factory and the machines and that limited the skilled workers. While that is true to an extent right now with the data centers, when those data factories are available for anyone to stamp out their product, it is the slower/non monopolistic organizations that will get cannibalized. And when that starts happening, there will be some rethinking about access to AI.
This isn't being voiced (or realized) yet but, AI is a threat to corporate personhood - in terms of capability and liability.
Ofcourse all this being predicated on AI delivering on its productivity promise and the world not being swamped by slop.