If anyone knew for sure they would make a killing at the stock market.

However we dont know what the future holds. All sorts of factors affect what is going to happen. Will china continue to import less? Will the houthis be able to stop Saudi exports long term or is it just a short term issue? Will USA be able to guard ships passing through the strait? Will Iran face some sort of internal collapse? Will USA pack up and go home? Will other countries be drawn into this war?

Nobody can tell you what is really "going on" because nobody knows what the future holds and uncertainty is high.