Hacker News Reader

If that's the case you should really buy that <1%. You have a 50% chance of 100xing your money.

That would require these to be predictable.

Which is the precise problem with the "prediction" markets writ large. Some things just... aren't.

In what way is the outcome of a coin flip predictable?

It is fairly predictably binary, barring an odd experimental setup.

Versus, say, this sort of prediction market wisdom: https://imgur.com/a/pw5hW9x