[flagged]
It's a spectrum, not a binary. We're really far from the "packing bags and leaving the country" end where you're a slave to the state. America is nothing like an Iran or China where we have no power and no rights to overturn the state.
Let's see if any of these petty games helps Trump with midterms. I highly doubt it. Kalshi is already calling it a double win for Democrats.
The economic impact of the Iran War looks like it really cost Trump everything. And it's funny because he always campaigned on not getting into wars.
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/15/nx-s1-5822329/memphis-gerryma...
Both systems have strong benefits for incumbents.
But in China, the CCP literally determines which candidates can run for office. The TN GOP does not determine whether Democratic candidates can even run.
But it does largely determine if they can win.
Which is functionally identical.
It's quite common for Kalshi bets to go from <1% to 100% chance in minutes when news breaks. "Prediction markets" is almost Orwellian in its inaccuracy.
Which is the precise problem with the "prediction" markets writ large. Some things just... aren't.
Versus, say, this sort of prediction market wisdom: https://imgur.com/a/pw5hW9x
Are we now? https://trends.google.com/explore?q=how%2520to%2520emigrate&...
Some of my American friends in Canada have taken in American friends who left so quick they didn't have a long-term place to land yet. Whether you have packed your bags and left, that depends who you are. It's not a flood, but an exodus has begun amongst those whose lives have been disrupted: academics, trans, queer, etc