XML did not become more complex following 2002. DTD, Namespaces, Comments, processing instructions, CData, attribute vs. child dichotomy - all of these things exited from day 0.
XML Schema (just like JSON schema) did not. When we're talking about a "simple format" in terms of security we are talking about parsing footguns like these features, not about complexities that may exist with any wire format such as schema and data validation.
Were there any better formats for simple messages back in 2002?
I would argue that yes.
1. ASN.1 is horribly complex, but PKCS #7 (Cryptographic Message Syntax, a.k.a. CMS) was already established, and it was better than XML Signatures in one regard: it did not try to fuse the signed content with its envelope. But this probably wasn't he best choice.
2. If all you needed is a bag of keys and values, you could easily go with an RFC 822 style header + values format (which worked well for both email protocols and HTML). As a bonus S/MIME was already well established at this point, so you had an obvious way to sign this data.
3. Simple binary formats like XDR (used by NFS) or simple textual formats like LDIF or the RFC 822 header format mentioned above could be freely combined with any existing signature protocol that did not mandate structured data (i.e. every signature protocol in existence before XML Signature came in).
4. An even better approach of course, would have been to say no to fine-grained cryptographic agility[1]. That was a terrible mistake, but it was the default design choice back in 2002, and it's hard to single out OASIS. The JOSE/JWT authors should have known better though. You could have define a couple of ciphersuites/version, and a simple, fixed signature protocol for each version.
5. The best approach would have been to just avoid signatures completely and require TLS, but this wasn't viable back in 2002. Even OAuth 1.0 and OpenID 1.0, which came out several years later, included their own cryptographic signatures, but their schemes were still far simpler than SAML.
I think the key takeaway today is that SAML is no longer necessary today. TLS is not an option for secure web resources. There are no features of SAML that cannot be supported by OAuth or OIDC (only security misfeatures). All IdPs and most products support OIDC. In fact, OIDC is probably more well-supported than SAML.
SAML is only used because of enterprise inertia and self-inflicted FUD. As a professional, we should treat SAML with the the same disdain we've directed
we've directed towards Internet Explorer 6. This is an insecure legacy technology that presents a drag on the entire industry.
---
[1] https://www.blockchaincommons.com/musings/musings-agility/