Those arguments are independent of the state of OSS models. There appears to be no moat whatsoever on creating state of the art models commercially - the US threw the kitchen sink at China in terms of sanctions and barriers ... yet it has been unable to keep Chinese companies away from the frontier (arguably ahead in small local models with Qwen). Even if all the models were proprietary we'd expect the costs and capabilities to be widely available. The Europeans might even be able to field their own advanced models eventually.

OSS models are strategically important, but that is a different matter to getting value out of them for OSS software development.