Today it cost massive effort but it's possible 10-20yrs from now an AI could solve a problem like this in under an hour with a single thread on a free subscription paid for by serving an ad.
These arguments are so weak because you'll then have to make the same one a few years from now when it does something else impossible. The argument only stands if we assume no progress will occur.
I just think you and the other guy have different definitions of "smart". There's no denying that LLMs are useful, but I don't know if I'd classify them as "smart". There were probably people in the 80s saying computers were "smart" because they could compute 78971 * 12341 faster than a human.
In what sense is a LLM "undeniably smart" but a CPU from the 80s isn't? Or would you define such a CPU as "smart"?
You're right though they largely are "smart" in the 80's computer sense. This is largely due to continual learning being unsolved.
BUT the more you look at them, research, and try experiments there's something there not in a 80s computer. If I had to guess maybe 1-5% of a humans ability but it's there. They are able to do novel things but ever step outside of their distribution takes exponential effort for every small addition. There is a true ability to adapt and learn new things on the fly, things never seen before. That is the the smart part. There something hidden in these things we don't understand that allows novel insights built from in context learning.
It's actually measurable in experimental settings but even there it's hard to tease out. I saw it mostly while doing CL training experiments. But I also see it while working with them for coding novel things.
But the more power we provide and farther down the road of this we go those 1-5% are things like solving unsolved math problems. No human solved these things. You say brute force, I say it needed massive effort to break out of it's distribution and get those small insights. It's very human like when taken at scale. The scary thing is that scale is getting smaller every day.
And our brains must something like that at some physical level. You can't have a "turtles all the way down" of reasoning - the building blocks must be simpler. It must reduce to something like pathfinding and brute force at some point, weighted by factors in the system and maybe some randomness.