And this wouldn't have happened if we had tried to get them to buy our hardware rather than trying to gatekeep. Protectionism never works in the long term.
Almost everyone knew that these sanctions would backfire within a few years. You can't really put sanctions that have noticeable negative effects on bigger economies. They only work for small to medium economies. I believe sanctions on any economy in top 10 would fail.
So until China solves the ASML problem, there won't be any flooding.
Which they are in progress on: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh...
China have been really squeezing all they can out of DUV machines, but I'm not sure how much node size really matters for AI competition - more of a cost issue (more chips/power for same FLOPs) than anything, and TSMC & NVIDIA's healthy profit margins need to be considered too.
What is the timeline like? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?
Small numbers perhaps, but this is happening right now.
What will the numbers be in 5-10 years time? Who knows, but ASML took about 5 years to go from 20/yr to 100+/yr.
Of course politically the world may well be quite different in 5 years time, as may be the AI market.
We also don't know how small of nm chips they can manufacture. If it's 20nm, it's practically useless for advanced AI chips.
A bit late for that now that they are moving into early production with their own.
Nvidia are likely more concerned about AMD taking market share, and I suspect that geopolitics will leave US/China GPUs with largely non overlpping customer bases.
That's not what's happening in the auto-industry, Chinese EVs are easily outselling American ones. Why would GPUs be any different?
This is another example where we might ask "why would it be any different?"
It'd be ironic if Europe ended up banning ASML (a Dutch company) from shipping to US instead!
ASML's Dutch EUV machines depend on importing US made EUV light sources from California to build them, and depends on sales of their machines to the US to stay afloat since they're not exactly flying off the shelves domestically.
So maybe the EU is not that stupid and suicidal to cripple their economy further by cutting off one of their biggest pay-piggies for no reason.
In fact, as an anecdote to your hypothetically scenario, the US is the one with the most leverage since if they want, they can ban the export of EUV light sources to ASML and sell them instead to Canon and Nikon, sinking ASML and propping up Japan's semi industry instead, if relations sour and they see Japan as a warmer ally than the EU. Hypothetical.
FYI, the US is only 10-15% of ASML's sales. The bulk of their machines go to China, Taiwan and South Korea.
It's on US soil and subject to US laws and export controls. That's all that matters.
Mark Carney said earlier today at the EU, "the goal is not self-sufficiency, but collective resilience." It is through collective action that they can find more resilience to our American Antics.
Brazil is one to watch if they manage to achieve political stability, as is Nigeria if it can transition from being a petrostate.
So I think it can be summarized as “it all depends” and “skill issue.”
Seems to work for them.
Now, the US is left out in the cold with little influence left, themselves now the ones with an anti-missile shortage.
You seem to misunderstand what Protectionism is. This is not an example of it not working. If anything, it is any example of it working. Because Protectionism is about protecting your industry from foreign competition - exactly what China decided to do.