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Comment by grey-area | Hacker News Reader

None of this would be necessary if they thought they were actually anywhere near AGI...hmm.

Disagree, they need a lot of capital in the next couple years, and the more revenue they have today, the more data centers they can start building.

Also investors (particularly non-AGI-pilled) want to see revenue number go up, regardless of AGI. This juices the IPO.

If they need capital in the short term and were anywhere close to AGI, they could easily generate it, by spinning up their incredibly capable and intelligent agents to generate capital through doing useful work. They could also fire entire departments within their own org and replace them with agents, if they had something close to AGI.

Instead they are selling a dream to the gullible, and advertisements to go along with that dream.

while i suspect youre right, this cannot be concluded with the information we have as of today.

eg its also possible that theyre either close to AGI (or even beyond it) - and its just too expensive to run at scale, making it a novelty from the perspective of profitability for the near to medium future.

you could argue that they could still do it for some positions -- but even that depends on just how expensive this theoretical model is.

What you describe is IMO “fully obtained AGI”, what I’m arguing for is consistent with “< 5 years to AGI” which I deem “close”.

That said AGI is a fuzzy term and you’ll model the world poorly if you treat it as a binary state.

Prominent figures in OpenAI have claimed they have already attained AGI.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/openai-releases-its-lat...

"OpenAI released its latest model, GPT-6 Astra, on Thursday, with company President Greg Brockman calling it the beginning of the artificial general intelligence (AGI) era."

But they're still peddling ads instead of improving the world. How odd.

Sure, they claimed it, that doesn’t affect my world model above.

They'll have to find a smarter species to emulate first. My money's on the octopus!

Excellent way to put it.

It’s always he guys who steal the technology from the inventors that try to present the technology far beyond what it is.

Signed, that guy at google who did some stuff about this and had it taken away.

Turns out, just like the Turing test, its easier to dumb down intelligent expectations than to improve intelligence.

AGI makes a lot better argument if everyone is in idiocracy.

> AGI makes a lot better argument if everyone is in idiocracy.

IIRC, a part of the backstory of Idiocracy is the development of pervasive and good enough AI/automation, which enabled society to get that dumb without immediately collapsing.

I wish more people could read and appreciate that couple of sentences.

Even if it's not necessary, it brings more money.

It’s pocket change compared to the money that could be made with real AGI.

This move tells us they don’t think they’re anywhere near AGI, directly contradicting their bombast and puffery on the subject.

The “AGI” bar comments are so tiring.

When OpenAI (including Altman, Brockman etc) stop talking about AGI, we can all stop talking about AGI. I'd happily do so.

Currently their actions completely contradict their claims of emergent intelligence.

They can talk about AGI without claiming the current model is AI. They can talk about emergent intelligence without claiming it’s AGI. And businesses can work on multiple things with different goals without being contradictory.

They have in fact claimed this.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/openai-releases-its-lat...

It’s a silly semantic debate. It’s an argument about what other peoples words mean in their mind and the smug comments about it are incredibly banal.

What if their AGI/ASI told them the road to Humanity betterment (because you know that was OpenAI initial mission, just in case we forgot) was through more efficient ads ? /s

Sounds like the plot of a Douglas Adam’s book

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