The EU is running out of Europe. I thought Turkey or North Africa would be the next steps. Maybe Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
* Nordics: Iceland and Norway which are ambivalent, despite repeated attempts to get them to join. (They are already in EFTA.) Greenland and the Faroe Islands fall more under the dependencies category below.
* Switzerland which can't because it wishes to be neutral, and also because of the finance sector. The Vatican has some similar issues.
* Microstates, dependencies and tax havens.
* Ex-USSR. The Baltics function well in the EU and are the exceptions, but Moldova, Belarus, the Ukraine and Russia each have massive issues. (Including how Moldova doesn't control much of its territory and much of Belarus is contaminated by Chernobyl.)
* The Balkans. Problematic recent history. I think Albania and North Macedonia may join in the near future. Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo have ex-USSR style issues.
* Turkey.
* The UK, which is problematic since it is the only major state which has left.
Not white enough for the EU. There is a lot of opposition to even Turkey, which is already in customs union, joining and talks are dead specifically because EU countries do not want immigration from Turkey.
So in 50 years Tukey will border authoritarian regime either way.
Either way, it's clear that UK migration levels have not been diminished by Brexit, and much of it is coming from outside the EU... So whatever one thinks of the issue it is bigger than Europe.
https://bylinetimes.com/2021/08/12/cummings-brexit-confessio...
The warnings before Brexit were that it would increase immigration - and look what happened!
Edit: The Turkey stuff was on Cummings blog - don't know if its still there.
Oh yeah, that's gonna be hella popular with the voters.
The other question is what its border control is like at the eastern end.
There are already large numbers of Turks in western Europe, particularly Germany, so presumably some of them would vote for it.
Define large numbers. It's around 5% or even less in Germany which hosts the biggest Turkish community to the best of my knowledge, and way less in other European countries. Bringing Turkey in imo might dissolve the Union, I don't see anyone trying it soon.
> Turkey refuses to address its past with the Armenians, Kurds and Greeks which is a major concern.
It's also a dictatorship and its population is probably not in favor of liberal democracy - most (all?) Muslim countries aren't.