I also don't see the case for stability. Yes, if you're still on JDK 8, it would probably chug on for a couple of years. But we were talking about greenfield projects and newer JDK go EOL much faster. If you want patches, you'll have to run your app to a newer JDK, which may break a couple of things. Rust (within the same edition) or Go (within the same major version) break less than that.
As far as runtime compatibility goes, Rust and Go apps ship with the runtime. This can be better or worse for you, depending on what is your upgrade story, but I don't see a clear winner here. What I would give to Java over Rust is that you will have far fewer dependencies to take care of if you need to upgrade. But the same goes for Go.
For observability, I feel that with Rust you have a bit less that you need to observe (no GC to worry about). Tokio tracing is great, but observability requires a bit more effort. The go observability story is far worse. So Java probably has an edge here, but not something that ever felt like a game changer. My impression is that for most of the enterprise shops that love Java, observability means collecting unstructured log files through NFS and trying to find a needle in the haystack with primitive tools, but I've been out of touch with this world for a couple of years.
Productivity is something that is dead if you are AI-heavy. Sure, many shops are still wary about AI, and I totally get why, but this is a battle that's already been lost. Without AI, I would say I was about 3 to 4 times more productive in Rust than I was in Java, but ramping up that productivity took at least 1 year of practice. It's not time most companies are willing to spend. With AI, this doesn't matter anymore, for better or worse.
I'm not arguing that Java is not chosen often for greenfield projects. It's clearly extremely popular in many circles, especially outside startups and big tech. But I think the reason Java is chosen have little to do with the reasons you've mentioned above and more with organizational preferences.