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Then the next tier of labs will be even closer to the frontier than present, and the top labs will lose their pricing power

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So far the next tier has only demonstrated that they can catch up to, but not necessarily leapfrog, what the top tier has put out publicly.

I suspect the top labs will come up with a business model that doesn't involve handing out their secret sauce for everyone else to reverse engineer. Perhaps restricting their top models to select high paying government/enterprise contracts. Or maybe a bespoke "describe the problem and we'll solve it for you" type service.

I think it’s laughable to think OpenAI has some special sauce that can’t be replicated easily. They simply have asymmetric access to compute and the dollars to power it. Thats the only moat here.

OpenAI doesn’t even know how their model works. Nobody knows how LLMs work. So it’s not like it’s technically difficult to replicate, just costly.

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