Interestingly the argument against building a social network is still the same, and inevitably someone will come along, not listen to the advice and create the next facebook. These things seem to be cyclic in nature.
Interestingly the argument against building a social network is still the same, and inevitably someone will come along, not listen to the advice and create the next facebook. These things seem to be cyclic in nature.
Everything is cyclical and doomed to fail until something better breaks that repeating pattern. It happened with Amazon before Web 2.0, when everybody thought it was doomed to fail. I'd bet it happens with Facebook.
It deserved repeating, because I don't think some people get it: Friendster had a few users. Myspace had a lot. Facebook has every single college student and now it has every single high school student, and almost every person checks it at least once per day, and in the last 6 months it's been picking up in every demographic. Facebook is a part of life for those people, in a way that Twitter or Tumblr or Flickr or even a huge site like Youtube is not. It's not going down without a fight.
My parents, cousins, aunts, and uncles all use it, for goodness' sake.
Sites I'm in contact with every day: Facebook, Google (search, mail, reader), YouTube, Twitter, and HN.
As an aside, I honestly think Twitter will become very mainstream. I'm already seeing more pop-culture references every day, and have friends I never would have expected to see on it following me. It's certainly busted out of the Silicon Valley bubble, which honestly surprised me a lot. A year ago I thought of Twitter as the quintessential by-the-Valley-for-the-Valley startup.
I'm rooting for Twitter to succeed independently (e.g. not acquired by Google or Facebook).
I think I started suspecting Twitter was reaching out to the mainstream (or at least the younger generation) when I would click on random public timeline and/or summize search result rows and find people who had 40-50 followers, talking about what was going on in their life (e.g. normal, average people not social media cultists)
The power of Twitter is that is like a cocktail party laced with real-time search capabilities.
So a boss asks to be your facebook friend, and all of a sudden, you have to be super careful about privacy settings, other friends, talking trash, etc. Now it's become linkedin.
But hey, check out this new social network. Hop on a new network that's growing, and keep up with your friends, who you can convince to also join.
Repeat.
Lots of new social networking sites are starting these days focusing on specific niches, and they're very useful within those niches. And then there's ning and its ilk, which are "meta-niche" social network sites.
There are also still a number of very large unserved niches that create openings for new Facebook-like social network sites. (I'm actually kicking around the idea of going for one of those that I happen to be very familiar with)