Depends on whether the costs they have are inflated ten-fold due to hardware shortages.

Ignoring current state of shortages, the interesting part (for me at least) is how much a SOTA token costs on current hardware if you exclude the costs for paying for current TSMC shortage and without factoring in the cost of new datacenters being rushed and renting hardware from your competitors (who are also supply limited).

The "actual" cost is of course also relevant and interesting but it is another thing entirely.

Have they actually announced that they're charging less than the marginal cost of inference, or that the revenue they're taking in doesn't make up for the cost of training each newer and better model?

The former does not pass the smell test when there are random providers selling tokens for competitive open weight models.