Comment by japhyr | Hacker News Reader

Comment by japhyr | Hacker News Reader

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For a bit of context, Juneau Alaska deals with a smaller scale version of this most years. There's a bowl off of the Mendenhall Glacier named Suicide Basin. Each summer that basin gets filled with meltwater, which forms a lake because the glacier blocks the water from leaving the basin. At some point the lake fills with enough water that part of the blockage gives way and the lake suddenly releases.

In Juneau, this is a well-defined basin with well-established dynamics. The city still wrestles with how best to handle this. Recent years have seen higher river levels when the basin releases, and the downstream banks of the Mendenhall River have eroded much faster than people were expecting. The city and individual homeowners are engaged in multiple projects to manage the annual flooding.

In the Nepal case the scale is much larger, and the variables are less known and less stable. This is absolutely devastating to see.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2026/08/12/juneau-officials-...

Reminds me of the Fargo-Moorhead diversion project. The Red River flows north through Fargo, which means that down-river portions can ice over in the winter and cause upstream flooding. The diversion project should wrap up soon, and hopefully it works. As I understand it, the city is going to appeal with insurance companies to drop costly flood insurance requirements.

I completely disagree. The variables in these situations are WELL known. The difference is scale, and in the Himalayas there is no cost effective, completely safe way to deal with them. The hydroelectric potential in that part of the world is the main driver for the continuous build -> flood --> destruction --> build cycle. Obviously, the last event was nothing short of astonishing, devastating and horrific. The worst part is that it will happen again, just differently.

> > the variables are less known and less stable.

> it will happen again, just differently.

It seems to me that the two of you are actually in agreement. If we had a better understanding of the variables we'd have been able to predict what happened in advance from the reams of satellite data we have.

No. It will happen again the only thing that will change is the amount of water and debris. More or less people will die depending on the incentives to live in the district. Humans should not inhabit those valleys.

That's not a response to what I wrote? If we had a better understanding of the variables then we'd almost certainly be able to leverage all the data we have to warn people in time to evacuate. Similar to how wildfires used to kill a lot more people but these days even in the most fire prone regions you'll almost always have time to get out if you heed the evacuation notice.

I agree with you that flood prone areas are generally a poor choice of place to live but it seems to me that's neither here nor there.

What do you mean the hydroelectric potential is the driver? Is there a word mistaken?

There is no electricity production?

I think they mean a resource ripe for extraction. There is huge stored gravitational energy in that ice and water up so high, which is also exactly why it was such a disaster.

Potential as in possibility, not as voltage. It's an awkward phrase...

> It's an awkward phrase...

You might even say it's charged.

Potential and actual as in voltage.

Huh? I mean, if you look at the actual damage reports you see quite a bit of energy taken of both Nepal and Chinese grids. Further deduction leads to the obvious conclusion that hydroelectric generation in the district is VERY important.

Yes, most of our problems with the shifting climate are not physical, their not engineering, they're nothing but stupid, stupid "social studies". The kind of thing billionaires want to buy their way out of, which they can't, so they do the next best thing: abandon all hope and build their bunkers cause real philanthropy is complex, and real society isn't just something an LLM can dictate and people will just follow.

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