The moment they go public is the moment the music stops and everyone who still has their head in the sand realizes that they now can't deny there's no money to make in selling AI models, only money to lose.
What you get wrong is who the music stops for. It stops for us (retail). They dump their bags and consolidate into a more manageable business in the long run. S&P drops 10% and life moves on in a few years.
I think you’re right about OpenAI though. They got outplayed at every step and wont go public.
Turns out it was mainly just caused by one hedge fund (Citadel) targeting another hedge fund (Leopold). He got liquidated and Citadel picked up his portfolio for pennies. Market subsequently soared to even higher highs in the last few weeks and, poof, Anthropic is going public again.
That’s the narrative anyways - the big drop was just Leopold getting liquidated and not a larger market downturn.
I don't know if they will never go public,but their business is clearly not profitable as it is today.
I'm a heavy user but the moment they stop subsidizing I will pick something else because I know how damn expensive it actually is (my usage is ~4k usd/month, but paying 200 in their max plan).
I guess lot of people will do the same.
So therefore theres no argument to keep anthropic and OAI afloat if they cannot do so on their own.
I think the AI industry desperately needs one of the two to get to IPO for its own sense of identity, though; the morale boost and the presumption of validation are crucial at this point.
I think it’s possible that the remaining power of the delusion gets Anthropic to IPO.
It is all about greater fool theory now. The substance OAI and Anthropic had is gone.