There are so many other issues to worry about at the moment more immediate than solvency.
There are so many other issues to worry about at the moment more immediate than solvency.
The U.S. government spends about one-third! (roughly 33% to 39%) of individual income tax revenue strictly to pay the interest on the national debt and that is not even paying off the principal balance itself:
https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/cbo_baseline_february...
A raise in interest rates for treasuries, can bring this into 50% to 60% within days.
Yeah...worry about other things...
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/feder...
You’re not wrong. But it’s not as simple as 33-39% disappearing into a black hoe.
To your point, I don’t think anyone has to be worried about American solvency, but a looming debt crisis doesn’t seem like a stretch of imagination at all.
Wait...
It seems to be more of a subjective topic to me. Otherwise we would all have a perfect plan and never any monetary concerns. Highlighting weak links in the system is I believe a perfectly healthy thing to do. A sanity check would go a long way these days.
"No one serious is worried about American solvency. The paper says 50% over the next 10 years, but even most economists misunderstand how the monetary system works. There are so many other issues to worry about at the moment more immediate than solvency."
And the only point I was trying to make was this: Nobody expects an entire (powerful) system of government to stop being a thing ... until it stops. And other powerful governments have stopped being a thing.
I'm sure there were plenty of pundits in ancient Rome who said things like, "No one serious is worried about Roman solvency". And eventually, they were wrong.
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Side note: It doesn't matter if unserious people think these things or not. The article's premise is about the ideas of "too much debt" making the bond market a more risky bet.
If people aren't buying bonds this will eventually slow (and stop) cash flow to governments (including the federal government) to the point of it being a crisis, because bonds cover 25% of our Federal government spending.
Anyone not taking that seriously is in for the most hilarious of surprises.