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Comment by vivzkestrel | Hacker News Reader

- AI doesnt know facts

- it only the probability of the next word, next sentence, next paragraph however you wanna put it

- you are dreaming if you think the transformers architecture is going to give you AGI eventually

Transformer-style attention archectiture and language models won’t bring about AGI, I agree - but you’d be foolish to think there aren’t OAI/Anthropic researchers working to invent the thing that will.

You think that the researchers in these labs are superhumans? There is zero indication that anyone is making progress in those areas.

If anything, the transformer style attention architecture and language models have pushed AGI further into the future because the vast majority of finding for AGI research is going into the dead end of transformer style architecture and language models, pulling it away from methods that actually could achieve AGI.

major breakthroughs happen once a decade. its gonna take a long freaking time for anyone to get there because they ll need to invent a new architecture for this. one that does not hallucinate

Oh, so it’s my kids’ problem, not mine? Fantastic, full steam ahead, I guess.

I have no idea if LLMs will develop into AGI, but they can definitely query a database of facts.

it only the probability of the next word

I predicted that some idiot would say that. (Except I predicted that they would include the word predicts in the correct place, so I've updated my weights accordingly.)

- https://blog.florianherrengt.com/how-llms-work.html hey there mojo jojo, might wanna read how llms work first

The whole 'its only predicting the next ___' has got to die. When did you last update your priors? So the models that are self-reasoning and hacking HF and disproving conjectures are next token predictors?

You might as well keep calling them stochastic parrots if you're going to stick to the 2022 line of thinking.

> The whole 'its only predicting the next ___' has got to die.

Isn’t it the truth? Just like computers are mostly a lot of switching on and off. While we know the theory behind why we are switching things on and off, we still haven’t extracted the meaning behind the weights of an LLM (if there is one).

- https://blog.florianherrengt.com/how-llms-work.html isnt that how llms work?

- did you change the architecture magically somehow?

what was the latest model you tried?

This, but also:

First define "knowing" and "AGI" in a way that excludes machines, doesn't exclude many humans, and isn't just tautologically restating the prior belief that "only humans think" with different phrasing.

None of the critics ever can. Worse, most attempts exclude entire classes of human being when they try.

- i tried whatever is available on the free plan on gemini, deepseek, claude and openai as the latest model

- i use them regularly for small stuff

I ain't saying Fable 5's a gold digger, but...

Would have gone hard in 2023

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