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Comment by flatline | Hacker News Reader

I watched the full video and their conclusion was: service providers need to be doing this type of agent red-teaming continuously to counteract the attack sophistication of systems like theirs that are either extant now or soon will be. “You must buy our top tier agents for the good of humanity.”

This is their only realistic counter to cheap open weight models. Usage of AI services has shifted dramatically to Chinese providers - from 4% at the beginning of the year to some 30% now. They cannot release their latest SOTA models to the public, due to government restrictions and possibly real risk of misuse. US labs face downward price pressure on one end and anxious government admins on the other. How will they pay the stupidly high cost of training the next SOTA models? This is their only avenue, and it’s questionable how viable it is IMO.

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> Usage of AI services has shifted dramatically to Chinese providers - from 4% at the beginning of the year to some 30% now.

Where did you see that number?

I knew when I wrote that it was a bare assertion, based partly on memory. This is an approximation based on a few sources, the principal of which was this article, which pulls from a bunch of other sources in turn.

https://www.secondtalent.com/resources/ai-trends-in-china/

Oh, it's the OpenRouter number: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/china-ai-mo...

Those numbers aren't credible IMO because OpenRouter only see traffic for people who have chosen to route their traffic through OpenRouter. If you do that, you're much more likely to be experimenting with alternative models. They have no insight at all into people who point their applications directly at OpenAI or Anthropic without having OpenRouter in the middle.

I agree about OpenRouter. The AI Gateway number [0] is likely the figure that was actually coming to mind. Moreover, Qwen models alone have overtaken the previously-dominant Llama models in hf downloads by quite a margin.

Real question, and a refinement to my previous statement: would you find it more surprising if over 25% of worldwide inference was running on Chinese open-weight models, or not? I personally would not be shocked.

[0] https://vercel.com/blog/ai-gateway-production-index-july-202...

Within China itself, inference is overwhelmingly on Bytedance models which, by the way, are just as closed as those of Anthropic and OpenAI. They are integrated into everything, not just through a dedicated app, the way Gemini is integrated into Chrome.

I wouldn't be too surprised by that, given both the size of the Chinese market and the enormous price discount you get compared to the US models.

This is just extortion with extra steps.

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