Ok. A serious question.
I frequently hear that wind and solar are the cheapest forms of electricity. Then why are they using gas turbines? Is it because they can generate more power with a smaller real estate footprint?
In other words, they are using gas turbines because the politicians are stupid.
So yes, wind and solar are cheap. Depending on where in Texas you are, gas is cheaper.
Texas is not at all against renewables. Maybe, just maybe, whatever axes the people building data centers are optimizing on rule out solar/wind over factors other than "renewables are for leftists, so fuck that we're gonna burn gas even if it's more expensive."
No need—the current ones are uploaded directly into my mailbox regularly by Randy Weber, my district rep.
> 11.40% of TX electricity is from solar
This is... Not a huge statement to me. My home state is at 16% solar, and we're calling it inadequate. [0] Its not a 1-to-1, as we have probably 10% of the people, and 1/3 of the landmass. More spread out, different demand, so a completely different landscape.
But 11% is not some victory dance.
[0] https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/news/news-stories...
I am glad Victoria is doing well. Texas could always do better but keep in mind what % you’re quoting that Texas has 7x the solar capacity that Victoria has. I suspect that will get even more aggressive has batteries have become more cost effective at utility scale.
How do you reconcile that with your theory?
Texas accounts for 40% of new solar capacity installed per year at this point.
It does lag behind an inefficient and expensive rooftop solar, and has no State mandate for homeowners to build it.
That said, I think this is enough to show that Texas doesn't hate solar, so there's probably a different reason for selecting gas to support the data center. If I were to Hazard I guess, it would be stability and demand curve
I can certainly believe that oil and gas pay better bribes, and that this incentivises a certain kind of politician who seem to be over-represented among conservatives in the US. But that doesn't explain the widespread dislike among the conservative end of the general population. Is it just groupthink or Overton Window -nudging using social media? Or is there something more psychological going on? Some kind of disgust reaction?
Eg https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/pollution-musks-unper...
The flip side of course is that gas turbines are in short supply and manufacturers are in no hurry to build out production capacity for what is effectively obsolete technology with a very uncertain future. A lot of the projects being announced may never get delivered for the simple reason that there are long waiting lists for these things.
And there is the notion that related investments might end up under water when the few plants that do get built start struggling economically in ten years or so. These are not very attractive long term investments. The short term interest in securing any capacity at all is overriding this. Of the well over a hundred GW of data centers planned until 2035, probably only less than a 30-40% will actually get built; if not less. Michael Liebreich is predicting only about 35GW will be realized. His estimate is that there simply is no more production capacity that can be committed than that.
It will be interesting to see if this Amazon plant actually gets built. For now Amazon can afford to gamble on this and just write it off if it doesn't work out.
If policy changes in a few years, I expect a lot of these projects to get unceremoniously cancelled when it turns out that they are a combination of under water financially and behind on schedule because of component shortages anyway. Also, it only takes a few failed projects for everyone to get cold feet. Premature closures of new gas plants could happen if renewables get cheap enough. Those are already happening in some places.
More people will be using AI during the (work)day, than at midnight. Then they could do half solar, half gas.
Also "more expensive" when it comes to solar isn't meaningful until you also consider timeframe. Solar panels pay themselves off in a few years, and after that they basically generate "free" electricity. Gas never becomes cheaper or free, every year it will cost money.
Timeframe is accounted for if you look at levelized cost per kWh. The levelized cost of natural gas is 5 to 11 cents/kWh. In the sunniest spots, the levelized cost of solar with enough battery storage to provide 24/7 power is about the same, if you want >90% reliability. The usual four hours of storage is only enough to account for the "duck curve" during the day.
https://www.pv-tech.org/solar-pv-and-storage-cost-declines-d...
https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e...
Solar and batteries keep getting cheaper so hopefully they will be clear winners soon, at least in sunny areas.
First: global usage.
Next: I even wonder why frontiers labs don't sell batch processing and spot prices to keep 100% utilisation. If they do that and I suspect they will it will be 24/7 maxxed.
Imagine this: Fable at 98% discount because but you need to wait. Then imagine: bots that scan your tickets for easy low priority tasks to do when those cheap tokens come.
Let alone research batch compute needs. Training and so on.
One concept will drive this shift: GAAP profitability.
Texas has very cheap gas; it’s also good for solar. They are very competitive price wise, so it’s kinda depressing they are using gas. But it’s probably a slight price edge plus better reliability.
> I frequently hear that wind and solar are the cheapest forms of electricity
presumably they put zero value on stable production or count subsidies as income