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Comment by ethagnawl | Hacker News Reader

And, as a result, the market is ... up?

Unemployment makes it more likely for the fed to lower interest rates, which makes the stock market more attractive, so, yes.

(Unemployment also generally causes lower inflation in general, at least according to the prevailing macroeconomic school of thought.)

The Fed is not going to cut rates. Looking at Fed Rate futures they only predict increases:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...

Private sector gained jobs. Public sector lost more jobs than the private sector gained. News reports a negative number.

I wonder if this is the evidence of the labor market decoupling from "the economy" in terms of economic productivity?

Folks keep predicting it. Maybe it's starting?

It's not. 23,000 jobs is 0.01% of the workforce, so it's negligible in terms of lost sales (probably hurts consumer confidence more). But it is a signal that the economy isn't running too hot, so the company's much larger borrowing costs aren't going up.

Maybe we can finally reach communism by first getting together and all agreeing "the economy" isn't a science and if we all just believe really hard, numbers can go up forever, then we won't even need money!

It only works until people try to withdraw money that doesn't exist. The less people believe the earlier that happens, but it will happen sooner or later.

Never withdraw money, only take out loans! the survivors will sort it out, or not... we'll be dead so who cares.

Promote this man immediately to the head of our new megacorp Walmart-Exxon-Lockheed-Yum.

Anything you can measure can be a science.

I think we're there already?

This is why engineers don't make money trading markets

The market is going up because the market (AI) thinks it means there will be a rate cut. Which is good for stocks.

But I have to inform you all that we are in a period of stagflation and there is no way out but pain for someone. Either the asset holders or the regular people who need to buy things.

If the market expected a worse job loss than 23,000 that would make sense.

I'm not actually suggesting there's a good reason for market swings, just that bad news shouldn't necessarily cause the market to go down.

Yesterday they were expecting the report to show 80k+ jobs added. So, this is much, much worse than expected. The market is up because they expect this will keep the fed from raising interest rates, and also because the market is increasingly detached from reality.

Bad news is good news, leading to possibly fewer rate hikes

There is no good news. This is stagflation. Worst case scenario.

Yeah, I'll never understand the disconnect between Wall Street and the mudslide of diarrhetic bad news that has been rolling in constantly.

For a selloff to happen, investors have to believe there is a better place for them to go. At worst, any bad news right now is making everything look equally bad, so there is no advantage to running away from Wall Street in particular.

Bad news sells. There is always some bad news to print so you hear about it. That doesn't mean things are bad though.

skill issue. Solved by having the correct model of the world and forces acting on it given (appropriately weighted) current context and your usual variance.

It's usually people who don't understand the context or assign appropriate weights to events and allow randomness that complain about not understanding markets.

You're getting downvoted but you're exactly right

Gross dude

That comment should be illegal

Send it back across the Diarrhio Grande

Jobs down, threat of increased interest rates down

Perhaps the market takes job loss as a sign that AI is replacing jobs, which would be a positive for stocks, at least for now.

Sure why not. Mercury is in retrograde after all

This is a nothingburger article, 23,000 jobs lost is essentially flat.

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