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Comment by refurb | Hacker News Reader

By that measure it doesn’t sound like that much.

You’re talking about about an amount that is a 13% of the total US government spending, of which is 20% of the entire US GDP.

I’m not saying it’s insignificant but it’s only a few percent of the US GDP and it represents spending over several years.

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I mean that's so far, it continues to grow exponentially larger with each quarter. The debt issuance for the first half looks to be crowding out US treasuries in the bond market - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-deb... - that's an extremely large amount of debt. And it's still getting larger and larger each quarter.

I would question the idea that highly industry consolidated debt is competing with risk free debt issued by the US government. Those are two very different products.

And while the quarter by quarter growth may seem astonishing it very different saying “debt levels today are alarming” versus “if this trend continues debt levels will be alarming”

So the disclosed balance sheet debt is 1.35 trillion and then the off-balance sheet debt is 1.65 trillion for a total of 3 trillion in AI debt for the 5 tech giants so far. It's multiplying every quarter and they've set investors expectations to be that this is never ending basically. But the tech giants aren't the only people spending themselves into massive debt, think of the CoreWeaves and the Nebius and the hundreds of other smaller companies. And the expectation is that there will be a near term return on all this with a healthy profit. Those five tech giants are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the amount of debt.

While the debt numbers might look large, don't forget how much revenue is coming into these companies as well.

OpenAI gross revenue was $4B in 2024, $13B in 2025 and estimated to hit $26B in 2026. Revenue is doubling or more.

Same with Anthropic. $1B in 2024, $9B in 2025 and estimated to be $47B in 2026.

All the AI companies together are pulling in hundreds of billions of dollars per year in revenue and it's going up quickly. To me, taking on trillions in debt in order to make hundreds of billions in revenue doesn't seem crazy.

Yeah this is going to be north of 10 trillion by the end, I would wild-ass-guess. Inflation adjusted it's larger than the manhattan project, apollo program, works progress administration, hell, it's on par with the cold war era military buildout, or a baby world war.

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