“Nothing ever happens” is like “you can’t beat the market.” It’s basically tautologically the strongest predictive model that we can have. A corollary is that something may happen, but it won’t be what you think.
"When the answers change, I change my mind [...] Base rates have clearly failed me. I’m not conceding the bet, because I still think there’s a 10-15% chance I win via luck... make no mistake, this software truly is the exception that proves the rule."
https://www.betonit.ai/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an
At this point, straightforward trend extrapolation suggests that AI continues to get better and better. Arguably, continued rapid AI progress is the "nothing ever happens" bet at this point. If AI progress stops, or slows dramatically, something will have happened.