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Comment by ceejayoz | Hacker News Reader

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia-nato-arms-germany-wa...

> Germany's defence minister is frank and plain-spoken, but also deliberate with his words and intention. When he talks about Russia, the future of the West and the possibility of another European war, the message however becomes stark: "Our experts say it can happen in 2029."

> In remarks published Wednesday, Generalleutnant Christian Freuding, the inspector of the German Army, said the 2029 date was not a figure pulled out of thin air by his government's national security establishment, but an actual consensus view among Western allies.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-mark-rutte-says-europe-...

> NATO Chief Mark Rutte urged member countries to do more to prepare for the possibility of large-scale war, warning that Russia may be ready to attack the alliance within five years.

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Russia may be ready to attack the alliance within five years.

Russia can't even take the country next door. How exactly are they going to attack NATO? With a bunch of rusty nukes that almost certainly no longer work, and that would get their (relatively few) major population centers vaporized by nukes that almost certainly work just fine?

> Russia can't even take the country next door.

Neither could the Weimar Republic.

> With a bunch of rusty nukes that almost certainly no longer work, and that would get their (relatively few) major population centers vaporized by nukes that almost certainly work just fine?

Even 1% of Russia's arsenal being functional would be a problem, and I can imagine someone taking a gamble on "will Germany/France/England want to take a nuke to the face over the Baltics?"

Pretty much this. If a single nuke detonates over say Leipzig, it would be the most deadly single attack on European soil in history.

Nukes aren't relevant unless Russia uses nukes or tries to take Paris or London. No one is going to nuke Russia over a Polish-Russian border town, and maybe not even over Warsaw falling. Until Poland and the Baltics get their own nukes, of course.

"Almost certainly no longer work"? I'd be interested in seeing your basis for your "almost certainly".

Have you seen the state of the rest of their armaments? Countries that have to bum artillery and soldiers off of North Korea are not in any position to go up against NATO.

If you're a Russian officer in charge of nuclear stockpile maintenance, why in the world wouldn't you pencil-whip the paperwork and steal the funding? If you're ever caught, it will be under circumstances where nobody will be in a position to do anything about it.

There is a good chance of this. Nukes need ongoing yearly maintenance to be operational, without that they are basically just a flying tin can. The whole movie trope of stealing an old nuke and using it doesn't apply to the real world.

Also corruption is somewhat accepted in some countries as it allows those at the top to have legitimate means of disposing of traitors when needed without that hassle of drumming up fake charges.

I read that in the Cold War, the military expected some incredibly high failure rate (30%+) of the bombs due to technical failures. These are incredibly complicated machines.

What ongoing yearly maintenance does a non-hydrogen nuke need?

The rockets need regular attention.

> Russia may be ready to attack the alliance within five years.

With what, sharpened sticks? Russia will soon only be left with rattling its nuclear saber as its once mighty military is left in ruins.

> With what, sharpened sticks?

Deniable, asymmetrical attacks?

Look what Ukraine did to Russia's air bases with a couple truckloads of drones.

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