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Comment by ta20240528 | Hacker News Reader

ta20240528

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While true, China's threat has been going on for a long time and they've been running repeated exercises on how to do it, how to take US warships out, etc.

Additionally, US support for taking Greenland is virtually zero. Chinese support for taking Taiwan is frighteningly high.

China is not an irrational actor. They know that the most effective way to take Taiwan is slowly, through soft power and political subterfuge.

There is no need or advantage to a full frontal assault.

They're exactly as rational as any other group of humans.

They've repeatedly stated that they'll use force to take Taiwan if necessary.

They are building the military power to make the full frontal assault.

I don't get why there's so much "oh, China's different" talk on here or on other online forums. I often wonder how much of that is organic versus something their propaganda/agitation ministries puts on.

> There is no need or advantage to a full frontal assault.

Perhaps, but in the last year China did build these:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/03/stairway-to-tai...

Unless China has some very interesting new anti-drone tech, those look like nice big targets.

Rational or not, they're building warships and an invasion fleet, along with the ability to stifle any US attempt to stop them. This is not the action of someone hoping for a slow victory.

The person at the top of the chain was asking why everyone is preparing for war. This behavior from China is why. It predates any of the Greenland Trump idiocy, too.

There are undoubtedly elements within the state that advocate for war, just like the elements within our state that do the same. So far, chinas political leadership is shrewd enough to mollify them and still maintain power.

The downside of autocracy is ...autocracy. the upside is that you have a consistent hand at the helm, making predictions of behaviour simpler and more rational than the rotating cast of leadership we present.

China has consistently chosen soft power over military action. I suspect they will continue to do so.

The Europeans didn't think it was a bluff.

But more generally, when the foundation of your country's morality is "all men are created equal" you really have given up the space to object to others doing what you do.

If honour is a thing.

Nobody said bluff but you, and honour is long gone.

That just leaves the facts. Which do you think is more credible and likely?

I don't think Trump is bluffing. However Americans in general are opposed to taking Greenland, and so if Trump does anything I expect Americans/Congress to raise up. Europe should be concerned because this will take months to play out.

reflect on what? both things can be true at the same time.

When both are true at the same time, one might reflect on why "because China" is given as the pat answer.

When the subject is China, the reflection isn't "because China". What we are seeing here is "Because US", which is very different.

The subject of "Why is everyone preparing for war so hard" would seem to be "everyone", no?

The subject is critical minerals. China is therefore why here. Of course in the large picture everyone is preparing for war.

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