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Comment by modeless | Hacker News Reader

Anthropic's "durable advantage" theory of US AI dominance is looking pretty silly. There's zero indication that it will be hard for China to keep pace as models improve and start contributing to their own training. Which pretty much invalidates their policy recommendations.

They can't even blame it on distillation this time, unless they want to claim that their own preferred security measures were ineffective in preventing Chinese access to Mythos.

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I remember that more than a year ago, when Anthropic and OpenAI started to hide reasoning steps, some were claiming that Chinese models were done, as they could only distill those US models.

I am very curious for the next batch of Chinese models. I have been using DeepSeek and it is nothing short of excellent.

Likely won't improve much. They trained on every text already.

There is tremendous investment and work being done in creating new high quality data sets. Some of this is happening in-house at various firms, such as Meta making their employees use AI for their workflow to generate high quality training data.

Also, AI companies get huge amounts of human input when people use their cloud models, including thumbs-up or thumbs-down on millions of outputs. So the usage of these cloud models is itself producing new, high quality datasets.

most of the gains from the past year and a half have not been from web data, but from synthetic data and agent rollouts with RL.

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