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Comment by hattmall | Hacker News Reader

Yes, people expect it to trade much lower, around $40 per share, still would be a huge valuation for what the company has done. Goldman Sachs analysts had an extreme range, of like $6 Billion to $5T, but the consensus $2T required 100x revenue multiple by 2030. If revenue was less than 10x by 2030 it's less than $100B company, and only $6B if it remains flat. So a lot of downsides and the upside requires a continuation of some insane magic.

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> Goldman Sachs analysts had an extreme range, of like $6 Billion to $5T

What a weird way for them to say "we don't know"! It's like saying this house has 0 to 100 bathrooms.

True, but it's the range from different analysts. Saying "we don't know" isn't really an option. Gotta say something when your IPOing a trillion dollar company.

To keep the proportions correct, it's between a model house the size of a piece of paper or a normal 2-bedrooms.

I would say it's more like 600 sq ft to 5000 sq ft. Nobody knows.

"So you're saying there's a chance? It might actually be possible to have 100 bathrooms! I knew it!"

I haven't seen anything saying $40. The lowest I have seen is $70.

From TFA:

> "I think it could be half over the course of the year," Noble said, adding that he believes a fair value for the shares is around $30, implying a decline of roughly 78% from current levels.

That's an absurd valuation. Typically stocks are valued at what people are willing to pay, with earnings partially driving that value.

I'd argue the opposite. If the price is largely vibes, you could see wild swings if sentiment changes dramatically. The bitcoin market is an excellent example of this. Worse, the recent BBB- rating on their bond issuance suggests a lack of lender confidence, and if their stock continues to decline those factors could compound.

A rational person isn't willing to pay more than the present value of future cash flows. Just like how a rational person wouldn't pay $101 for a $100 bill.

Where it gets fun is that: (1) we have people selling $100 bills for more than $100 and, (2) we have people gladly buying $100 bills for more than $100.

Verizon + AT&T + Boeing was my estimate for SpaceX value.

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